Four Major Observation Points:
1️⃣ Focus on Powell: Stabilizing the Economy through 'Expectation Management'
Powell's primary task is 'emotional stability + balanced regulation'. When signs of economic weakness emerge, he needs to release calming signals to avoid market panic and guide the hard landing towards a 'soft landing' as much as possible.
2️⃣ Focus on Trump's Policies: Low Interest Rates as the Core Support
Whether it is tariffs or stablecoin policies, the essence revolves around 'benefiting capital + fulfilling promises'. Goals like industrial return, enhancing autonomy, and alleviating debt pressure all require low interest rates to buy time.
3️⃣ Focus on Trump's Call for Rate Cuts: Driven by Multiple Interests
Lower government and corporate financing costs are beneficial for infrastructure and industrial return;
Stabilizing the stock market boosts voter confidence;
Alleviating debt pressure creates space for subsequent fiscal policies.
Therefore, Trump's call for rate cuts is both a pressure tactic on the Federal Reserve and a 'confidence message' to the market.
4️⃣ Focus on Market Psychology: Limited Downside After Correction
'Buy low, sell high' remains an ironclad rule. The correction during the meeting week has released a significant amount of selling pressure, and pessimistic sentiment is nearing the bottom. The real bottom often appears when no one dares to enter the market— even if there isn't an immediate rebound, the probability of a significant decline is also low.