Retail Bitcoin transfers have declined from 2.7% to 0.6% of total volume.
Absolute retail activity remains high at over $400M daily.
Similar trends in 2021 signaled the end of a bull cycle.
The percentage of small Bitcoin transfers—those ranging between $0 and $10,000—has steadily decreased over this cycle. At its peak, this retail segment accounted for 2.7% of the total USD turnover on the Bitcoin network. Today, it stands at just 0.6%.
Despite this drop, retail transfer activity remains significant in dollar terms, averaging over $400 million per day. However, this large number only accounts for a small fraction of the overall network volume, indicating a dominance of larger institutional or whale-level transactions.
Historical Pattern Repeats
This isn’t the first time we’ve seen such a shift. A similar trend unfolded at the end of the 2021 bull cycle when retail’s share dropped to a record low of 0.19%. That period marked the final stages of an overheated market, shortly before Bitcoin entered a prolonged correction.
The current trend may be echoing that same historical signal. As retail participants withdraw or slow down their trading activity, it often indicates reduced confidence or caution during late-stage market rallies.
The share of retail transfers $0–$10K in Bitcoin networks total USD turnover has been declining throughout the entire cycle: from a peak of 2.7% to the current 0.6%. At the same time, in absolute terms, activity remains significant at over $400M per day, but this represents only… pic.twitter.com/THeYtwDQpp
— Axel Adler Jr (@AxelAdlerJr) August 21, 2025
Early Warning or Normal Cycle?
While the drop in retail Bitcoin transfers can suggest a maturing market dominated by institutional players, it can also serve as a warning sign. Retail investors often enter during the hype and exit during consolidation. A declining retail share could therefore mean we’re nearing the top of the current cycle.
Analysts are closely watching this indicator as a potential early alert for a shift in market momentum. If history is any guide, a fading retail presence could be signaling that Bitcoin is approaching the final phase of its bullish run.
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