Folks, the market is going crazy again! ETH is fluctuating around the $4300 mark. This is not just a simple technical fluctuation, but a 'joint game' between Trump and Powell. One side has a 'digital nuclear bomb,' while the other wields a 'rate knife.' Contracts are exploding with $700 million in liquidations in a day, and the blood and tears warning is at max!

Trump's Heavy Move

At the White House Crypto Summit, he directly signed an executive order to create a 'Strategic Bitcoin Reserve,' and included ETH, XRP, and others into the national digital asset vault. What does this mean? It's equivalent to giving ETH an 'official gold label.'

Institutions have already taken action: Since the approval of the ETH ETF in May, ETPs and listed companies have purchased 2.83 million ETH (over $10 billion), with demand reaching 5.33 million in the next year, while new supply is only 800,000, creating a supply-demand ratio of 7:1! Additionally, a mysterious whale bought 20,300 ETH over 10 days and deposited them into Aave and Compound for interest. Capital has already been strategically positioned. Trump’s strategy is clear: use ETH to bind to the dollar's hegemony, constructing a dual-track monetary system of 'digital gold + stablecoin.'

Powell's Disruption

The Federal Reserve is also active. On August 19, before the Jackson Hole meeting, Powell sent out hawkish signals, causing ETH to plummet 5% that day. The market initially expected four rate cuts in 2025, but now it may only have two left. Short-term liquidity tightening led to a 1.5% drop in tech stocks, dragging crypto down as well. However, in the long run, even if rate cuts are slow, the easing trend remains. The case of Bitcoin soaring to $120,000 due to rate cut expectations is an example; ETH's rebound space has just opened up!


Technical Analysis

Support Level: $4206 (historical trading dense area, tested multiple times without breaking).

Key Level: Bollinger Band Midline $4279 = Bullish Lifeline.

Resistance Level: $4386. Once it breaks out with volume, it will form a 'Bollinger Band Breakout + RSI Overbought' signal, aiming directly at $5000!

Currently, ETH's trading volume around $4300 is shrinking, indicating an impending major shift — either a surge or a crash!

Operational Thinking

Bulls have: Trump's policy dividends, institutional buying spree, and record high net inflows into ETH ETF.

Bears rely on: Federal Reserve hawkish expectations and short-term profit-taking.

Key Time Point: August 22, Powell's speech. If it leans dovish, ETH is highly likely to break $4386 and accelerate.


$4300 is the 'Bull-Bear Divide' for ETH. As long as it holds the midline at $4279, a short-term pullback is a chance to go short; once it breaks $4386, institutional buying + market sentiment explosion means $5000 is not a ceiling! Avoid leverage; spot trading is king. The dividends from Trump's 'digital reserves' are still around; a pullback is an opportunity, just do it!

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