How do tonight's data affect the cryptocurrency market? A verbal script version

Key points in one sentence:

• Data is weak → Cryptocurrency prices are more likely to rise → Expectations for interest rate cuts increase;

• Data is strong → Cryptocurrency prices are likely to fall → Expectations for interest rate cuts decrease;

• About the same → Little impact, look at the catalysts within the sectors.

What to watch tonight (Beijing time):

• 20:30 Initial unemployment claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index

• 21:45 S&P Manufacturing/Services PMI preliminary

• 02:00 FOMC meeting minutes (usually “hawkish in rhetoric + data dependent”)

• 03:00 Federal Reserve official Bostic speaks (dovish would add points)

Simple strategies for three scenarios:

1. Clearly weaker than expected (initial claims rise, manufacturing/services PMI declines, Philadelphia is poor)

• US Treasury yields ↓, USD ↓ → BTC/ETH strong first, altcoins follow; September interest rate cut probability ↑.

2. Close to expectations

• Little macro disturbance → Look at each sector's catalysts (ETF, RWA, Sol ecosystem, etc.).

3. Clearly stronger than expected

• Yields ↑, USD ↑ → Cryptocurrency market falls; expectations for interest rate cuts ↓.

Tip:

• Reduce leverage before data/minutes, don’t chase; after release **watch for the “second jump” in 5–15 minutes** to decide.

• Monitor 10-year yields and DXY simultaneously: both declining = risk assets are more comfortable.

It's that simple: weak = bullish, strong = bearish, flat = watch sectors. #杰克逊霍尔会议 $BTC