Federal Reserve Minutes Spark Turmoil, Powell Faces a Choice

On August 21, after maintaining the interest rate at 4.25%-4.5% for five consecutive times, it was the first instance since 1993 that two board members (Bowman and Waller) jointly opposed the decision, citing concerns over weak employment.

The market reacted quickly: the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September plummeted from 85% to 72%, the Nasdaq fell by 1.1%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries rose to 3.87%. At the Jackson Hole annual conference on August 23, if Powell insists on “inflation first,” it may contradict “data dependency,” but easing may risk losing control over inflation expectations.

In the next two weeks, non-farm payroll and PCE data will be released. Will he prioritize job preservation or suppress inflation? #杰克逊霍尔会议 #美联储7月会议纪要 $BTC