The giant whale is secretly getting off the bus! Is the new high of $124,000 the last baton for retail investors? Mig tells you why it's more dangerous now than ever!

History doesn't simply repeat itself, but it does carry similar rhymes—when Bitcoin hits a new high, capital quietly hits the brakes.

glassnode's latest report points out a strange phenomenon: although Bitcoin surged to a historical high of $124,400, the buying power behind it has weakened.

It's like a supermarket sale where the crowd is huge, but the actual buyers are few. What’s even more alarming is that the speculative gambling tables are even more lively—the total position of altcoin futures contracts once surged to $60 billion (then fell back by $2.5 billion), while Ethereum's contract trading volume soared to 67%, becoming an absolute barometer.

In my view, this resembles a “last hurrah.”

Long-term holders are quietly taking profits (just like at the end of the cycles in late 2017 and early 2021);

However, leveraged speculation is wildly piling on (similar to the accumulation of positions before the surges of Dogecoin and SHIB in 2021);

Ethereum's strong dominance even reminds me of the signs of capital migration before the last round of “DeFi summer.”

But the key difference is: this cycle is faster than before.

If we refer to the previous two cycles, Bitcoin usually takes 2-3 years to go from the bottom to the peak, but this time, starting from the low point at the end of 2022, we have just entered a similar time window—yet the macro environment (interest rate hike cycle, ETF fund flow) is completely different, and the pace may be severely compressed.

The current market is like a cocktail that is getting stronger—profit-taking, soaring leverage, and the game between old and new capital. Who do you think will ultimately foot the bill for this drink? Leave your judgment in the comments #杰克逊霍尔会议

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