Yesterday, ETH finally caught a breath, having fallen for six consecutive days, and finally welcomed a reversal. ETH surged from 4060 all the way up to 4380. Yesterday, Old Chen clearly stated: When the market overwhelmingly shouts short, it is a precursor to a rebound! The main players love to scare retail investors into cutting losses first, and then secretly pick up chips for a rise. This wave of market hit a crazy 300 points!!!
Yesterday's article:
However, today's direction is not as clear as yesterday:
Today, ETH is like a 'wound-up pendulum', sometimes surging up and sometimes being pulled back. This is not because the bulls are weak, but because the news is leading the way! My personal view is very clear: the short-term market is a tug-of-war in a fluctuation, looking up to see if it can reclaim 4320, and looking down to see if it can hold 4250. And the real show will be revealed after Powell drops a 'heavy bomb' at Jackson Hole!
The current atmosphere in the crypto circle can be described as 'cautiously optimistic' mixed with 'ready to run at any time'. Institutional funds have been particularly subtle in their operations these days - last week, $630 million rushed into ETFs, but this Monday saw a withdrawal of $197 million. It's like adding ingredients while also pulling them out when eating hot pot, indicating they haven't lost hope, but also don't dare to go all in.
Everyone knows: there is no shortage of positive news, but the rhythm is all hijacked by procrastination. That's why there is this whipsaw market. Funds are afraid of missing out and also afraid of being trapped, leading to a situation where the market can't rise but also can't crash.
Next, let's understand Ethereum through three layers of logic:
1. At the macro level: Powell's speech is the real stabilizing force. If the rate cut expectations are confirmed, ETH will directly drink 'steroids', and breaking through 4500+ will not be a dream; if the tone is hawkish, the market will immediately turn against it, and ETH might be pushed back to 4100.
2. At the funding level: The alternating inflows and outflows of ETFs indicate that large funds are still in a game phase, not just charging in blindly. As long as net inflows explode again, ETH can naturally break through the range.
3. At the technical level: the current market is just a 'weak rebound'. As long as MA25 (≈4390) and MA90 (≈4438) are not broken, we can only consider it range trading.
In summary: macro defines direction, funds set rhythm, and technology defines position.
Here are a few practical points for everyone:
Resistance zone: 4390-4440 is the first hurdle, and 4455 is the 'ceiling'. If it can't get through, don't cling to the battle.
Support zone: 4250-4270 is the short-term critical point, and 4210 is the strong defense line. If it breaks, be prepared to go for 4120-4060 to fill the gap.
Turning point: 4320, whether it can reclaim this line directly determines whether the bulls can continue or fizzle out.
Short-term operation suggestions:
Light positions, quick in and out: Whether going long or short, don't exceed half a position. Protecting your capital is most important before the market clarifies.
Low buying strategy: Near 4250, small positions can be tentatively accumulated, with a stop-loss set below 4210.
Conditions for chasing long: Stabilize above 4320, then can chase long, looking at 4455 or even 4520.
Shorting opportunity: Once 4210 is lost, follow the trend to short, aiming directly at 4060.
Survival skills: The market driven by news fears false breakouts the most; it is recommended to place orders in batches and not chase highs or sell lows.
Old Chen's final point is very clear: ETH today is a fluctuating market manipulated by news. Before breaking through 4390-4440, everything is range trading; once it stabilizes with volume, it will be the moment to switch trend thinking. The market is now focused on Powell's words; there's no need to rush to prove you're smarter than the main players, surviving is the only way to qualify for the next big market!
Finally, Old Chen wants to say one heartfelt thing: The winners in the crypto circle are not those who make a few points in a day, but those who can maintain their positions amidst the repeated slaughter of retail investors. There are no gods in the crypto circle, only smart people who can read signals. Old Chen's articles do not boast, do not paint cakes, but teach you practical survival skills. Follow Old Chen for daily strategies, know in advance.
