A heavy signal suddenly strikes the market!

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting this Friday evening. This speech, known as a 'barometer of monetary policy,' is causing a frenzy of betting among global traders—with up to 325,000 options positions (costing only $10 million) heavily wagering on a 50 basis point rate cut in September, with potential profits reaching $100 million! However, last night's higher-than-expected inflation data has forced some traders to urgently lower their rate cut expectations, intensifying market speculation. As a crypto player, you must be clearly aware: this game around the global liquidity turning point will directly determine whether Bitcoin breaks through $150,000 or falls back into the abyss in the second half of the year!

1. Powell's 'face-changing' risk surges! September rate cut probability plummets to 80%?

The latest market pricing shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve's September meeting remains at 80%, but key details are showing cracks: higher-than-expected inflation data is shaking the Fed's confidence in cutting rates. BMO Capital Markets interest rate strategist Ian Lingen urgently warns, 'Powell is most likely to pour cold water on the market's fantasy of a September rate cut!' If Powell releases hawkish signals, the US dollar index will surge violently, and risk assets (especially Bitcoin) may face a short-term massacre. But remember—sharp declines present great buying opportunities because the Fed's rate cut cycle will eventually arrive; the flood of liquidity will only be delayed, not absent!

2. The madness behind the hundredfold bets: 50 basis point rate cut = Bitcoin skyrocketing?

The market still expects a 25 basis point rate cut in September, but a few crazy traders have already bet on a 50 basis point cut—if true, the global liquidity floodgates will be completely opened, and Bitcoin is likely to recreate the 2020 surge myth! Historical data shows that during the Federal Reserve's rate cut cycle, Bitcoin's average increase exceeds 200% (after the 2019 rate cut, Bitcoin soared from $7,000 to $10,500). Behind the million-dollar bets in the current options market is the extreme greed of institutions for loose policies. Crypto players need to closely watch Powell's speech on Friday: if he hints at aggressive rate cuts, Bitcoin will instantly break through $120,000 and rush towards an all-time high!

3. Survival guide for the crypto market: How to navigate this 'expectation massacre'?

Short-term hedging: Reduce high-leverage positions before Powell's speech to avoid a liquidation wave triggered by hawkish remarks.

Hedging strategy: Buy Bitcoin put options or go long on the US dollar index (DXY) to hedge against potential steep declines.

Long-term positioning: If Powell releases dovish signals (or even hints at a 50 basis point rate cut), fully invest in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and mainstream coins like Solana—2025's biggest market may start!

Conclusion: The Federal Reserve's policy has reached a critical point, and Powell's speech will become the ultimate catalyst for the cryptocurrency market's performance in the second half of the year. Regardless of the outcome, a volatility explosion is inevitable—either massive losses or sudden wealth and freedom.

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