XRP is still stuck in a downtrend, with whales and investors losing confidence after Ripple’s executive chairman Chris Larsen started taking profits. The token has dropped below the $3 level twice, and technical charts remain weak.
However, despite the short-term bearish outlook, investors and the XRP community remain optimistic. Several key developments could act as strong catalysts, setting the stage for a recovery and potentially pushing XRP toward a new all-time high.
Let’s explore the 4 major trigger factors that could drive XRP’s next big move 👇
---
1️⃣ XRP ETF Approval – The Biggest Catalyst 💹
One of the hottest topics in the market right now is the spot XRP ETF.
The U.S. SEC has delayed its final decision, with Grayscale’s XRP ETF deadline set for October 18.
Other issuers like Canary, CoinShares, 21Shares, and Bitwise are expected to receive decisions around October 22–23.
There’s also speculation that the SEC may approve multiple ETF applications on the same day, which would send shockwaves through the market.
👉 If approval happens, XRP could witness a massive recovery and possibly a new ATH.
ETF expert Nate Geraci has suggested that a wave of spot cryptocurrency ETFs may be launched in the next two months, with XRP, Solana, and Litecoin among the top contenders.
---
2️⃣ Ripple’s National Bank Charter – A Trust Booster 🏦
Ripple filed an application with the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in July to obtain a national bank charter.
By law, the OCC must make a decision within 180 days (unless extended).
Prominent XRP lawyer Bill Morgan has suggested that the decision could come by the end of October.
If approved, Ripple’s USD stablecoin (RLUSD) will be regulated under both state and federal authorities.
👉 This would dramatically boost institutional trust and adoption of Ripple products.
With the timing possibly aligning with the ETF decision, XRP could benefit from two powerful catalysts in the same month.
---
3️⃣ Whale Money Flow – The Critical Turning Point 🐋
Whale activity has been a major drag on XRP’s price action.
Reports confirm that Chris Larsen sold millions of dollars worth of XRP.
Analyst Ali Martinez revealed that whales dumped 470 million XRP in the past 10 days.
Glassnode data shows XRP is in a distribution phase, similar to what was seen before the December 2024 surge.
👉 For XRP to recover, whales must shift from selling to accumulating. Once whale flow turns positive, the price could experience a sharp upside breakout.
---
4️⃣ Federal Reserve Rate Cuts – Macro Market Catalyst 💵
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision could impact not just XRP, but the entire crypto market.
The CME FedWatch tool shows an 85%+ probability of a 0.25 bps rate cut in September.
President Donald Trump’s administration is also pushing for even stronger cuts to stimulate the economy.
👉 If rate cuts are implemented, liquidity will flow back into the markets — and crypto, including XRP, could benefit significantly.
---
📊 XRP Price Update
At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.88, down 4% on the day.
24-hour low: $2.85
24-hour high: $3.02
Trading volume has jumped 11% in the past 24 hours, showing strong market activity despite the downtrend.
The upcoming catalysts, however, will be the true test of whether XRP can rebound toward the $5–$10 range predicted by analysts.
---
🛡️ Final Thoughts
XRP may be under pressure right now, but October could be the turning point.
✅ ETF approval → potential new ATH
✅ Ripple bank charter → stronger institutional trust
✅ Whale accumulation → price surge
✅ Fed rate cuts → macro bullish momentum
The next few weeks could be make-or-break for XRP traders. Those who stay alert and prepared will be best positioned to take advantage of any sudden recovery.