August 21 Crypto Report by Chuan Ge
From a fundamental perspective:
The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed several key points. First, most committee members believe that the risks related to inflation outweigh those related to employment, indicating that nominal interest rates will be maintained for a longer period. The dollar and U.S. Treasury yields will set an upper limit on the rise of risk assets. Based on past experience, BTC and ETH will be suppressed initially, while altcoins will be even more vulnerable. Second, there are still disagreements within the Federal Reserve; two members leaned towards implementing rate cuts as soon as possible, but 'almost all members' agreed to maintain the current policy. This situation of 'small divergence with a large consensus' will usually suppress the momentum for the continued rebound of risk assets. Third, there is uncertainty regarding tariffs, and committee members believe that the net effects of tariffs on inflation and economic growth need further observation, as they have both inflationary and demand-weakening impacts. This will exacerbate the impact of macro data on the market, making data release days 'market volatility days' for cryptocurrencies.
Technical analysis:
Regarding BTC, the price dropped to the support level around 112K yesterday and then experienced a technical rebound. When it rebounded to the pressure level near the previous low of 114.8K, it began to pull back. The daily line formed a small bullish candle yesterday, and from the trading volume perspective, the volume during the rebound did not exceed the volume during the previous decline, indicating that the marginal strength of funds has not yet increased. The short-term 7-day and 14-day moving averages have turned downward and are applying pressure on the price; the medium to long-term 30-day and 90-day moving averages are tending to flatten, indicating that the short-term market momentum is weak and the pullback pressure is significant, but the medium to long-term bullish trend has not been broken. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross and is spreading downward, with the negative values of the histogram still increasing, showing that bearish momentum is strengthening. In the short term, we should pay attention to the support level of 112K; if this level is lost, we will wait for a bottoming opportunity in the range of 105K-108K. The 4-hour chart is in a small downward trend of oscillation, and this trend has not changed, with the rhythm of the phase decline being very obvious, and each phase low being relatively clear. The price rose in the morning and then fell back, indicating that a bearish candle with a long upper shadow is about to form. For intraday operations, pay close attention to the pressure level in the range of 114.5-115.5K, looking for short opportunities; on the downside, focus on the support situation in the range of 112.5-111.5K.
ETH is currently in a high-level pullback phase after a rise, and the short-term 7-day moving average has turned downward and crossed below the 14-day moving average, forming a death cross pattern with prominent pullback pressure. However, the medium to long-term 30-day and 90-day moving averages are tending to stabilize upwards, indicating that the overall trend is still within an upward channel. From the candlestick pattern, the recent K-line shows characteristics of 'rising high and then falling back with increasing volume followed by a shrinking rebound', indicating a decrease in market capital participation and a significant amount of profit-taking selling. The MACD indicator has formed a death cross at a high level, with the histogram turning negative and gradually expanding, suggesting that bearish momentum has increased. However, the fast and slow lines are still above the 0 axis, indicating that the market is still in a phase of strong upward adjustment and has not fully shifted to a bear market. During the adjustment on the 4-hour line, a phase of resistance formed around 4380, and yesterday's rebound lasted for 24 hours; the current peak of the halt is just near this position. In the short term, we should focus on the pressure level of 4380; if the 4-hour line breaks through this pressure level with increased volume again, Ethereum is expected to experience a second test of the high point. For intraday operations, focus on the pressure level in the range of 4330-4380, looking for short opportunities; on the downside, first look at the support level of 4230, and then observe the support situation at 4130.
Regarding altcoins, with the rebound of mainstream coins, altcoins have also experienced a certain degree of rebound in the past 24 hours, with an average rebound space of about 5%. The overall performance of altcoins is very clear, with trading volume continuously shrinking and volatility space continuing to narrow, indicating that the market is entering a phase of convergence and observation, with reduced capital participation willingness. There is a lack of active market makers and large funds pushing the market, and the focus of main players is more concentrated on core assets like mainstream coins. At the same time, shrinking volume and oscillation often indicate that the market is accumulating strength. Now that mainstream coins are in a weak adjustment state, once they begin a second upward trend, altcoins may迎来补涨行情, and attention should be paid to the leading coins in the top altcoins and popular sectors!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and caution is needed when entering the market. The above is merely a personal opinion and does not constitute investment advice, but is for sharing and communication purposes only.
