In the tide of cryptocurrencies, the emergence of new coins is like a surge of waves, and judging the size of the bubble and grasping the timing for entry and exit becomes an important topic for investors. The following provides a reference framework for judgment based on different stages of project development, combined with market signals, to help investors capture clues amidst volatility.
Early stage: A high-risk period of solitary exploration.
When a new cryptocurrency is still in its early stages, market volume is often extremely limited. On social platforms like Weibo and Twitter (Bluebird), there may only be two or three KOLs sporadically mentioning the project. At this point, the project is like an infant in swaddling clothes, with both risks and potential returns at a high level. On one hand, due to low awareness and poor liquidity, price fluctuations can be extraordinarily intense; once the project gains market recognition, early participants may reap excess returns. On the other hand, projects at this stage often lack mature business models, technological implementation capabilities, or community foundations, with over 80% of projects failing at this point and ultimately becoming neglected 'air coins'. For investors, it's advisable to maintain close observation, assess core elements such as the project's white paper logic, team background, and technological innovations, and then decide whether to make small trial investments, avoiding blind speculation.
Upward phase: A buildup stage of community resonance.
As the project progresses, when there are at least 5 KOLs continuously discussing it and one or two Alpha communities focused on early opportunities begin to include it in their agenda, the new cryptocurrency enters an upward phase. Projects at this stage have already passed the most vulnerable infancy period and started to accumulate a certain level of community consensus and market attention. The continuous voice of KOLs helps to expand the project's influence, while discussions in Alpha communities indicate that professional investors are beginning to pay attention to its potential value. At this point, if initial investments have already been made, one can choose to hold patiently and follow the project's growth rhythm, avoiding missing medium to long-term opportunities due to short-term fluctuations.
Stable period: A profit-taking window where bubbles become apparent.
When discussions related to the project appear in broader social contexts like threads, mainstream media begins reporting, and secondary exchanges issue listing announcements, it signifies that the new cryptocurrency has entered a stable period. The spread of threads indicates that the project has broken out of niche circles and entered the public eye; media coverage further enhances its visibility and market enthusiasm; listings on secondary exchanges provide more convenient trading channels, attracting more retail investors. However, at this time, market sentiment is often quite exuberant, and bubbles begin to appear. For investors, this is an important profit-taking window, and they may consider gradually reducing their holdings, at least withdrawing their principal to convert unrealized gains into actual profits, thereby avoiding losses from later market corrections.
Tail end: A clearing signal at the peak of enthusiasm.
When project discussions spread across six or seven or even more communities, with no fewer than 10 KOLs voicing at the same time, and secondary exchanges have officially launched trading, it is highly likely that the new cryptocurrency is at the tail end of its development. At this point, market enthusiasm peaks, and nearly all cryptocurrency investors are aware of the project, with retail participation reaching its climax. However, too much hype often means that there is insufficient capital to absorb the investment, and price increases lack actual value support, sharply increasing the risk of a bubble burst. At this time, investors should decisively consider liquidating their positions, securing profits and avoiding being trapped at high prices.
It should be noted that the above stage divisions are not absolute, nor do all new cryptocurrencies evolve along this path. In fact, most projects will be eliminated by the market due to various issues in the early or upward phases. Only a very small number (about 0.1%) of projects can rely on unique value logic, strong community consensus, and continuous development momentum to eventually land on first-tier exchanges like Binance, similar to PEPE, SHIB, and other cryptocurrencies that once created market miracles. However, even these successful cases are filled with uncertainty and extreme volatility throughout their development. Therefore, when investors refer to the above framework, they should also consider their own risk tolerance, in-depth research on the project, and the overall market environment to make rational decisions, avoiding blind faith in stage characteristics while neglecting potential risks.
BTC ETH USDT
