Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Ethan
In the past two days, the crypto market has corrected again, with mainstream coins consecutively breaking through key support, with ETH leading the decline.
OKX market shows that BTC fell to a low of $112,500, now reported at $113,580, with a maximum drop of over 3% within 24 hours; ETH's decline is even more severe, hitting a daily low of $4,062 with a maximum drop of 5%, now reported at $4,180; over the past 48 hours, ETH has cumulatively corrected more than 8%, almost erasing all gains from last week.
In terms of other assets, SOL briefly fell below the $176 mark, now reported at $180.51; high Beta altcoins such as DOGE, PEPE, and TRUMP are also correcting in sync, with declines concentrated in the 7% – 10% range.
In terms of sectors, according to SoSoValue data, as of August 20, the PayFi sector, which performed relatively well yesterday, fell 5.65% today, with XRP down 5.52% and TEL down 7.17%; Layer 1 sector fell 3.35%, with Cardano (ADA) down as much as 8.83%; Layer 2 sector fell 3.75%, with Mantle (MNT) rising 5.51% against the trend; DeFi sector fell 4.25%, with Lido DAO (LDO) slightly up 1.01%; the Meme sector fell 5.25% overall, with MemeCore (M) rising 6.91% against the trend.
In the derivatives market, according to Coinglass data, the total liquidation amount across the network in the past 24 hours reached $452 million, among which long positions accounted for $373 million. BTC's liquidation amount was about $102 million, while ETH's liquidation reached as high as $175 million, becoming the current 'disaster area' for liquidations.
Lookonchain monitoring shows that in just the past 12 hours, multiple whale addresses have transferred over 34,000 ETH to centralized exchanges, with a total value of about $140 million, intensifying the market panic due to the concentration of whale reductions.
There is also no obvious support on the funding side. According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (August 19) saw a net outflow of $197 million from the Ethereum spot ETF, the second highest in history. Among them, BlackRock and Fidelity's two ETF products recorded outflows of over $80 million each.
Bitcoin and Ethereum have both tested key support for two consecutive days, with market sentiment sharply turning pessimistic, resonating with capital outflows, whale reductions, and ETF net outflows. In the face of increasing investor divergence, is the market experiencing a phase adjustment or the prelude to a deeper correction?
Odaily Planet Daily will summarize the latest views from on-chain data platforms, institutional research, and traders for readers' reference.
Bitcoin has not stabilized after stopping the decline; how will Ethereum perform in the future?
Santiment: Retail sentiment turns extremely bearish, possibly a signal for market reversal.
On-chain data platform Santiment stated that after BTC fell below $113,000, retail traders' sentiment sharply turned pessimistic in the past 24 hours, hitting the lowest level since the sell-off triggered by geopolitical conflicts on June 22.
Historical experience shows that extreme pessimism is often one of the important signals for a potential rebound, which may provide long-term investors with layout opportunities.
Although ETH leads the decline, the main line of the crypto market still revolves around Bitcoin. As BTC fell below $113,000, institutions also began to give their expectations.
Delphi Digital: TGA replenishment is expected to withdraw $500 billion to $600 billion in market liquidity.
Delphi Digital stated that the US Treasury will initiate replenishment of the Treasury General Account (TGA) in the coming weeks, planning to withdraw about $500 billion to $600 billion in liquidity from the market within two months. Unlike previous rounds, this replenishment lacks a buffer: the Federal Reserve is still draining liquidity through quantitative tightening (QT), reverse repurchase agreements (RRP) are nearly exhausted, and banks are constrained by capital rules and book losses, with buying pressure from overseas markets such as China and Japan also clearly retreating. In other words, this fundraising will directly extract funds from market liquidity.
This change is particularly sensitive to the crypto market. Historical data shows that during liquidity easing in 2021, the supply of stablecoins continued to expand alongside the TGA recovery; whereas in 2023, the supply of stablecoins has shrunk by more than $5 billion, causing the crypto market to stagnate. The liquidity environment in 2025 is expected to be even tighter; if the supply of stablecoins contracts again, high Beta assets like ETH may face larger declines relative to BTC, unless offset by ETF or corporate capital inflows.
Greeks.Live: There is divergence in BTC trends, focus on the $112,000–$130,000 range.
The options analysis platform Greeks.Live pointed out in a community briefing that there is a clear divergence in the current market regarding the BTC trend: some traders believe that the short-term outlook is weak and there is still room for further decline; while others believe that the liquidation of the bulls is nearing its end, and a rebound is about to start.
From a technical perspective, BTC is still operating within a volatile range, with key observation points at $112,000 to $130,000. In terms of options strategy, traders generally adopt a 'double sell' strategy in the $112,000–$120,000 range, waiting for market breakout signals.
BMO senior strategist: Powell may 'douse' the market's optimistic expectations for a rate cut in September.
Ian Lyngen, head of US interest rate strategy at BMO Capital Markets, stated that although the current market bets on a 25 basis point rate cut probability of up to 80% for the September meeting, and even 325,000 options bet on a 50 basis point cut, the real risk lies in Powell's speech this Friday potentially 'dousing cold water' on the market's expectations for aggressive easing.
If the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, it may trigger broader fluctuations in risk assets, and the crypto market, including BTC, may continue to face pressure.
Arthur Hayes: Unable to judge Powell's speech, chooses to temporarily avoid the limelight.
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, stated that he 'cannot judge how the market will react' to the upcoming Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting, and thus chooses to 'enjoy the late summer time' and refrain from excessive predictions.
Although this statement seems relaxed, it also reflects the current market's high uncertainty regarding macro variables, and the divergence in investor expectations.
Tom Lee: The speech may be 'doveish', and the US stock market and crypto market are expected to welcome a recovery.
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine's board, stated that most institutional investors expect Powell to maintain a hawkish tone at Jackson Hole, but since the market has already set this as a precondition, the speech may instead be interpreted as 'doveish', thus driving a phase rebound in US stocks and risk assets after the speech.
For BTC, this means there is a window for technical recovery after a short-term downward trend.
Bernstein: The bull market may continue until 2027, with Bitcoin targeting $200,000.
Bernstein analysts published a research report stating that the current cycle of the crypto bull market is driven by US policy support and increased institutional participation, and is expected to continue until 2027.
Among them, the price target for Bitcoin in the coming year has been raised to the range of $150,000 to $200,000, becoming an important pricing reference for medium to long-term investors.
Summary: Short-term pressure remains unresolved, rebound signals await confirmation.
The Fed's hawkish tone disturbs market sentiment, and crypto assets experience concentrated corrections under multiple factors such as capital outflows and whale reductions. ETH breaks below $4,100, BTC tests $113,000, and the scale of liquidations in the derivatives market expands.
Although short-term pressure is evident, Santiment data shows that retail sentiment has reached the extremely pessimistic zone, which historically often corresponds to the starting point of a phase rebound in the market. As Powell is about to deliver a key speech, whether BTC can stop its decline and stabilize will become a key signal for judging the direction of the market.
