October could be a turning point for XRP. Cryptocurrency lawyer Bill Morgan and industry watchers warn that two key developments are emerging: the SEC's final decision on several XRP spot ETF applications and Ripple's U.S. national banking license application, both expected by the end of the month.
Investors are closely monitoring as institutional accessibility and regulatory clarity converge, potentially determining whether XRP will breakout or stagnate. Rumors and performance targets have fueled the debate: some analysts forecast a price increase to $4 - $5 if the ETF is approved, while more ambitious models reach double-digit territory. With prices hovering around $3, the coming weeks could set the stage for a breakout or confirm a consolidation phase.
Regulations and Market Expectations
The SEC has postponed its decision on several prominent XRP ETF applications submitted by firms such as Grayscale, 21Shares, CoinShares, and Franklin Templeton, with the deadline now set between October 18 and 25. Alongside this, Ripple's national banking license application is also pending, reportedly being reviewed under similar time constraints.
Regulatory clarity on both fronts could open the door for institutional capital flow; otherwise, XRP may continue to face downward pressure. As growth momentum solidifies, market sentiment increasingly hinges on whether October's outcomes will deliver benefits or disappoint bullish expectations.
Price Trends and Technical Outlook
XRP is currently trading near the $3 mark, an important psychological threshold. The recent delay in ETF decisions has pulled the price down slightly, oscillating around $2.90–$3.00, a range identified by technical analysts as significant support. A strong breakout above the resistance in the $3.15–$3.20 area could pave the way for a price increase to $3.50 or higher.
Conversely, a drop below $2.90 risks leading to a deeper correction. On-chain metrics show that XRP supply on exchanges has decreased, indicating that holders are accumulating rather than selling, possibly preparing for the catalysts of October.
Broader Sentiment and Price Forecast
Analyst sentiment leans towards a bullish trend: Peter Brandt forecasts a 60% increase to around $4.47, while Tony "The Bull" Severino sees an astonishing potential surge of 333% in just a few weeks. Other models extend even further: in bullish scenarios with successful ETF and licensing, some predict XRP prices will reach $9-10, or even up to $12.60, depending on the level of widespread acceptance and financial integration. At this stage, October is not just an ordinary month; it has the potential to be a catalyst for a multi-month price increase.
What Investors Should Watch for in October
Here are the factors that could determine whether October is XRP's breakout month or a month of stagnation:
SEC's ruling on the XRP ETF application — Institutional capital flow depends on the timing of approval.
National banking license decision for Ripple — The legality of regulation will reshape adoption dynamics.
Price and volume reaction — Breaking above $3.20 or failing to hold above $2.90 are key technical indicators.
On-chain behavior and liquidity — Exchange flow provides early signs of accumulation or distribution.
Momentum shifting to altcoins — As attention increases, early-stage projects may benefit from capital rotation.
Conclusion: A Month Can Define a Cycle
October is not just an ordinary calendar period for XRP. With ETF decisions, banking license considerations, and converging strategic momentum, this token could regain its bullish momentum or stabilize during an extended consolidation phase. Close watchers may see one of the following outcomes:
If approved, XRP could quickly surpass the $4-5 range, potentially even higher.
If approval fails or is delayed, the cryptocurrency market may pause while market sentiment is recalibrated.
