#AIBubbleExplodes
๐ค AI Bubble
๐ธ $200โ250B/year invested โ but 95% projects = no ROI (MIT study).
๐ฆ By 2030 โ projected $1T+ AI spending, but risk of massive wastage.
๐ Probability of Burst 2025โ26 = 40% โ hard crash like dot-com.
โ๏ธ Probability of Soft Correction = 45% โ hype cools, only giants (Nvidia, MS, OpenAI) survive.
๐ Probability hype stretches to 2027 = 15% โ if big breakthroughs come (AGI / cheap infra).
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๐ช Crypto Parallel
๐ Market history = same hype cycle
2017 ICO bubble โ 90% died, ETH survived.
2021 DeFi + NFT โ $2.5T peak โ $800B crash.
๐ง AI tokens in crypto (FET, RNDR, TAO, etc.)
90% risk of failure (hype only).
10% may survive with real utility + adoption.
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๐ Timing Outlook
โณ AI correction window:
๐ฅ Likely late 2025โ26 (if Nvidia / OpenAI earnings disappoint).
โญ Could stretch to 2027 if hype stays alive.
โณ Crypto correction window:
Currently bull run (post-halving Apr 2024).
๐ 60% chance of correction in Q4 2025โ2026 (macro tightening + AI spillover).
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๐ฏ Bottom Line
๐ค AI bubble = 200B+ yearly with 95% wasted โ high correction risk.
๐ช Crypto = same 90/10 survival ratio, corrections repeat every cycle.
๐ Both sectors linked โ if AI bubble pops, AI-tied cryptos bleed first, BTC/ETH feel indirect pressure.
