Market dynamics today | $BTC
Bitcoin has retreated from its historical peak near $124,000, now sitting around $113,000–$114,000. The correction is between –7% to –9% weekly, indicating a cooling after the previous rally.
Recent declines are primarily attributed to a combination of:
Profit-taking by holders with high accumulated gains.
Uncertainty before the release of the Fed's minutes, which could alter expectations about interest rates.
Reasons to maintain confidence
Institutional adoption continues to surge. For example, BlackRock has already surpassed $100 billion USD in crypto assets, particularly Bitcoin.
In addition, Bitcoin ETF funds are attracting significant flows, reinforcing the narrative of “digital gold.”
Short-term technical risks
Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin has broken a key upward trendline, and the weekly stochastic oscillator indicates overbought conditions, pointing to a higher risk of correction. Possible retest towards $119,820, or even a pullback to $100,000 if key support is broken.
Furthermore, historically, August and September have been months of high volatility following strong rallies, which adds caution.
Future projections
Some models anticipate a peak of $121,800 in August, expanding to the range of $131,700 in September and a maximum of $135,800 for December 2025. For 2026, estimates range from $194,000 to $228,000.
In a more optimistic view, the narrative remains that Bitcoin could rise to $135,000 this month and reach $150,000 in 2026, driven by persistent institutional demand.
Bitcoin faces a technical correction from its recent highs, amid profit-taking and caution ahead of important economic data.
In the long term, the macro environment continues to support the positive outlook, with plausible bullish scenarios still on the table.