8.20 Web3 Main Task Strategy

I. Economic Data

There is not much important data affecting the market this week.

The focus is mainly on the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Friday, with Powell speaking at 22:00 on Friday.

Old Powell's attitude will cause significant market fluctuations, so let's wait and see.

The market's continuous decline 📉 this week is also smart money avoiding risks in advance. By the time Powell finishes speaking on Friday, the market trend will become clear.

II. Geopolitical Relations

I haven't been paying attention to other issues; I've been focused on the Russia-Ukraine mediation issue recently. So far, progress seems to be going smoothly. Zelensky may be prepared to make concessions, provided security guarantees for Ukraine are offered. (Of course, this also includes his personal security guarantees.) According to media reports, a tripartite meeting of representatives from the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine may be arranged before the end of the month.

There is too much information; @Cato_CryptoM has analyzed it very well, and I read his content daily. Additionally, @qinbafrank’s insights on Russia-Ukraine and interest rate cuts are also quite reasonable; both are quality bloggers.

III. Market Overview

1. Overall Bullish Forces are Weak

This morning, $ETH filled the CME gap of 4098-4230. After filling the gap all at once, there was a rebound, but the rebound strength was weak, and trading volume was sluggish. This indicates that market sentiment is still not optimistic, and demand is not large; it's just that temporarily no one is selling, resulting in a slight rebound. Smart money has already completed its risk avoidance. Waiting for Powell's speech.

2. CB Spot Premium

BTC, ETH, and SOL all have a slight negative premium, indicating that there is really not much buying in the spot market right now, as everyone is waiting for clear directional signals from the market.

3. Spot ETF

This week's spot ETF data is relatively poor, with net outflows on Monday and Tuesday:

Monday net outflow: 44,000 coins, net outflow of 197 million funds

Tuesday net outflow: 97,900 coins, net outflow of 422 million funds

4. Liquidity Clearing Chart

Massive liquidity has basically been cleared, and the leverage that needed to explode has exploded. Currently, there is no significant liquidity from either side. Let's temporarily ignore this.

Summary: The decline this week does not have direct negative news; it revolves around risk avoidance related to interest rate cut expectations and the risk of economic recession.

For those who haven't made any moves, it's better to make fewer operations; the market direction will become clear on Friday. A trend market is about to start.