On August 21 at 20:30, all technical analyses will become invalid! Data determines the lifeline?!

Attention! Tomorrow evening at 8:30, the U.S. will release two key economic data sets, which on the surface seem like the "old story" of traditional financial markets, but actually hide the keys to volatility in the crypto market!

According to the latest news, the number of initial jobless claims and the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index will soon be revealed. These two seemingly unrelated indicators to crypto could actually become levers that drive market sentiment.

First, let's talk about the initial jobless claims. The previous value was 224,000, with a forecast of 225,000. Don't be fooled by the small change in numbers; this is the "thermometer" that the Federal Reserve uses to gauge the job market.

If the actual data is below expectations, it indicates that the U.S. job market is more resilient than expected, which could raise expectations for interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. A stronger U.S. dollar index could indirectly compress the demand for safe-haven crypto assets.

Conversely, if the data is weak, the market's betting on a rate cut in September will become more resolute, with funds possibly shifting from traditional markets to the crypto space in search of returns.

What’s more concerning is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, which has plummeted from a previous value of 15.9 to a forecast of 7. This drastic decline suggests that the manufacturing sector may be entering a contraction phase.

We must understand that the manufacturing sector is the "ballast" of the U.S. economy. Once the data confirms weakness, concerns about an economic recession will intensify. At that point, the "digital gold" characteristic of crypto assets like Bitcoin may be reactivated as a tool to hedge against risks in traditional markets.

However, I want to remind everyone: these two data sets will not directly influence crypto market trends, but will have indirect effects through channels such as impacting U.S. dollar liquidity, Federal Reserve policy expectations, and stock market volatility.

Just like last year's CPI data release, which, although not directly related to crypto, triggered a 10% fluctuation in Bitcoin in a single day.

Market fluctuations due to economic data are the norm; there’s no need to panic excessively. Remember what I said: macro data is a weather vane, not a starting gun. Keeping a rational, phased approach to positioning is the key!

My scythe is faster than the dog traders'! Follow me, and I’ll teach you how to counter the market's cuts! #加密市场回调