Powell will speak in Jackson Hole on Friday, and the market is watching to see if he will provide a definitive statement about a rate cut in September. However, it is very likely that he will be like a person walking in the fog, not illuminating the path ahead, leaving many possibilities.

Currently, the market is overflowing with expectations for the Federal Reserve's easing policy, as if this is a script that has already been written. But Powell may reveal that the path of easing has already sown the seeds of uncertainty.

Although U.S. inflation has slowed down, it has not yet reached the 2% endpoint; the job market remains robust, all of which makes the Federal Reserve, when faced with the choice of policy shift, feel like standing at a crossroads, needing to weigh carefully.

Some research institutions claim that Powell may intentionally downplay expectations for a rate cut in September, just like not allowing the first light of dawn to disperse the night's haze too early, lest the market becomes certain of a rate cut outcome while the Federal Reserve remains silent and builds momentum for the September meeting.

If this is the case, the market will ripple like a pond, U.S. Treasury yields may rise, the dollar will find support, and the interest-sensitive growth sectors in U.S. stocks may have to temporarily bid farewell to their previous enthusiasm.

Powell is likely to emphasize in his speech that the Federal Reserve's policy actions will continue to depend on data and will be assessed based on the constantly changing economic situation to determine whether further adjustments to monetary policy are needed, and will not be led by market expectations or short-term economic fluctuations.

This is just like the affairs of the world; expectations and reality are always in a game of mutual competition, writing new chapters, and nothing is unchanging. Only by seeking balance and direction amid change can we find our way.

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