The global market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming release of the minutes from the July monetary policy meeting.

This document is garnering attention because it unusually records two dissenting votes—against the backdrop of increasing political pressure, the divide between hawks and doves is becoming more public.

This is not just a technical debate about interest rates; it may directly determine the direction of U.S. monetary policy in the second half of the year, affecting the flow of global capital.

Recent statements from several officials indicate that internal conflicts are becoming harder to conceal. Some insist that inflation must continue to be curbed, even considering further tightening; while others believe that high interest rates have hampered the economy, and that rate cuts should come sooner rather than later. This division not only reflects differing interpretations of data but also showcases the battle for independence under continuous pressure from the White House.

The wording of the minutes, even the weight of a single word, could be interpreted by the market in bullish or bearish ways.

More importantly, this document may provide key signals for the next phase: whether to begin rate cuts in the fourth quarter? Will the pace be a 'slow jog' or 'pause and then restart'? For investors, any hints regarding balance sheet adjustments or interest rate paths will lead to a repricing of major asset classes.

Currently, the market fears both a hawkish surprise and a dovish retreat—this night, it is destined that no one dares to close their eyes peacefully.