Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard economist, admits that the predictions about Bitcoin (BTC) he made in 2018 did not come true. Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff, who said in 2018 that Bitcoin is more likely to drop to $100 than rise to $10,000, has admitted that he was wrong.
“BTC is more likely to drop to $100 than to reach $100,000 in the next decade,” Rogoff told CNBC in an interview in early 2018. “Because BTC is used for money laundering and tax evasion, not as a medium of exchange. If regulations start to be enforced globally, the price will collapse.”
However, Rogoff admitted that he was wrong in a post on his X account, stating that the lack of effective regulations for cryptocurrency, the unexpectedly high adoption rate, and the inaction of regulators were the main reasons for his erroneous predictions.
“About ten years ago, I was a Harvard economist and said that Bitcoin is more likely to reach $100 than $100,000.
What did I miss?
1- I was too optimistic that the United States would implement reasonable regulations on cryptocurrency; I wonder why policymakers would want to facilitate tax evasion and illegal activities.
2- Secondly, I did not foresee that Bitcoin would compete with fiat currencies to become the preferred medium of exchange in the $20 trillion global underground economy.
3- Thirdly, I did not expect that regulators, especially the main regulatory body, would hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in cryptocurrency, due to the obvious conflict of interest.”
