Organized & compiled by: Deep Tide TechFlow
Guest: Brandon Green, Chief of Staff at BTC Inc
Host: Bonnie
Podcast source: Bonnie Blockchain
Original title: Market down! Major event coming to boost bitcoin! Trump family and BTC! Brandon Green 【Bonnie Blockchain】
Broadcast date: August 18, 2025
Key points summary
This episode of the podcast features Brandon Green, chief of staff at BTC Inc and a key planner for the bitcoin conference, to discuss the future trends of bitcoin.
What’s most talked about with Brandon is that he posted ten predictions about bitcoin's development direction for 2025 on social media on the last day of last year, the first of which has basically become a reality and has significantly impacted the direction of the crypto industry this year:
The United States will establish a bitcoin strategic reserve. More than ten other countries will also announce their strategic reserves before the end of the year, and a new round of competition is beginning.
In this episode of the podcast, Brandon talked about the key forces that may drive bitcoin prices up, which could still be MicroStrategy. But the truly noteworthy signals are not just Michael Saylor's repeated purchases of bitcoin, but rather strategic actions at certain critical moments. Additionally, the podcast also discussed the Trump family's understanding of bitcoin and how much bitcoin one would need to own to truly be considered 'wealthy.'
Summary of exciting views
Bitcoin is currently one of the best saving tools in the world; if you can invest part of your salary into bitcoin and not touch it for the long term, by the time you retire, you will be amazed at the wealth you have accumulated.
The United States has announced strategic reserves, and I boldly predict that national-level adoption will be a major theme in the upcoming cycle.
In the future, we will see not just companies that hold bitcoin, but those excellent enterprises that make bitcoin a core strategy. These companies will achieve huge returns from the market by investing profits into bitcoin. This behavior will also create a 'flywheel effect' that further drives up the price of bitcoin.
Microstrategy being included in the S&P 500 will be a very important moment; this change will happen soon, and it means that all passive funds investing in the S&P 500 must allocate funds to Microstrategy, which could become a significant force driving the price of bitcoin upward.
Buying bitcoin in a bear market and selling in a bull market is like picking up pennies in front of a speeding bulldozer, which may not be worth the risk.
By 2032, owning 0.01 bitcoin may be enough to achieve your millionaire goal, as the value of bitcoin may continue to grow against the dollar over time.
In the past, many people would directly search basic questions like 'What is bitcoin'; now they search for more specific queries, so the decline in bitcoin search volume on Google Trends does not indicate a waning interest.
The earliest bitcoin community actually originated in Asia. Some early bitcoin veterans and whales are still active in places like Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Tokyo.
How many bitcoins need to be saved to be considered wealthy?
Bonnie:
How much bitcoin do people aged 20, 30, and 40 need to accumulate now to become millionaires by the time they retire?
Brandon:
A few years ago, I answered a similar question. 'How much bitcoin does one need to own in 2032 to become a millionaire?' My answer at the time was 0.01 bitcoin.
I believe that by 2032, bitcoin may reach a new peak. Of course, this prediction also needs to take into account the effects of inflation, at which point the definition of millionaire may differ from now. But overall, owning 0.01 bitcoin may be enough to achieve your millionaire goal. Although it sounds like an optimistic estimate during a bull market, the value of bitcoin may continue to grow against the dollar over time.
Most people entering the cryptocurrency space now may not be able to own a whole bitcoin, but that doesn’t matter. Bitcoin itself is a divisible unit; 1 bitcoin equals 100 million satoshis. Even if you own 1 million satoshis, it may have great value in the future. Therefore, the key is to develop good financial habits, such as saving a small amount of bitcoin every day and holding it for the long term. If you can maintain such a saving method, it is a healthy way of financial management. Bitcoin is currently one of the best saving tools in the world. If you can invest part of your salary into bitcoin and not touch it for the long term, by the time you retire, you will be amazed at the wealth you have accumulated. That’s my advice.
I feel very lucky to be living in this special era, witnessing the gradual development of an invention like bitcoin. There may never be a similar opportunity again, so don’t miss out.
Bonnie:
Are you referring to the early stages of bitcoin development when you mentioned the 'special era'?
Brandon:
Yes, it is indeed an early stage. Frankly, there may come a time in the future when people can no longer exchange bitcoin for dollars. Such transactions may be banned or no longer accepted. We are witnessing this gradually unfold every day, which is so exciting. Future history books will surely attempt to look back and understand how bitcoin succeeded. This is an important moment in human history, and we happen to be in it.
Bitcoin Asset Company
Bonnie:
After Michael Saylor implemented the bitcoin strategy, the stock price of his company skyrocketed, and many people considered this a perfect case. Subsequently, we saw companies like Meta Planet and several other smaller bitcoin companies. But in reality, many companies do not genuinely support bitcoin; they simply discovered that incorporating bitcoin into their balance sheets could effectively boost their stock prices. What do you think about these companies?
Brandon:
I believe that what is currently referred to as bitcoin asset companies is one of the most noteworthy phenomena in the cryptocurrency space and is the core narrative of this cycle. I have a theory: typically, before a cycle begins, we see the main trends of the next cycle emerge from some small-scale or incidental events. For example, if you look back at the Mastercoin ICO and Ethereum ICO in 2014, these events foreshadowed the explosion of ICOs in 2017. Similarly, in 2017, the CryptoKitties project emerged as the first large-scale NFT project, and NFTs became a hot topic in the 2021 cycle. Likewise, in 2020, Michael Saylor founded a bitcoin asset company, and I believe this is the main narrative for the 2023 to 2026 cycle.
The United States has announced strategic reserves, and I boldly predict that national-level adoption will be a major theme in the upcoming cycle.
If we analyze the current market situation, we can find that the stock market is rewarding companies that invest funds into bitcoin. This phenomenon is not difficult to understand, as the market enthusiasm for this behavior is very high, so these companies' valuations have seen extremely high premiums. For example, some companies are valued at two or even ten times the value of their bitcoins held, while their operational businesses do not match this.
However, I don’t think this phenomenon will last long. There is currently an arbitrage opportunity in the market, where one can profit by comparing the market value of stocks with the actual value of bitcoins held by the company. But this situation may only last for a few months, or even shorter. In the future, the companies truly favored by the market will be those with strong profitability, who will invest their profits into bitcoin, and the market will thus reward these companies with more premiums. This trend will give rise to what is called the 'fastest horse,' meaning those companies that perform outstandingly in their bitcoin strategies.
I believe that in the future, we will see not merely companies holding bitcoin, but those excellent enterprises that make bitcoin a core strategy. These companies will achieve huge returns from the market by investing profits into bitcoin. This behavior will also create a 'flywheel effect' that further drives up the price of bitcoin.
Bonnie:
Do you predict this will happen in this cycle or the next cycle?
Brandon:
That’s a good question. In my opinion, it’s just a matter of time. If you had asked me three years ago, I would have said there were several major obstacles hindering the realization of this trend. First, institutions had insufficient trust in bitcoin. But now the situation has changed; we have bitcoin ETFs, and giants like BlackRock and Bridgewater are involved, so this issue has been resolved. Second, the accounting rules in the United States once viewed bitcoin as an intangible asset, rather than a marketable asset, which meant companies could not assess the market value of their held bitcoins. However, today Microstrategy has been allowed to recognize the appreciation of its bitcoins for the first time, which is a huge breakthrough for public companies that haven’t had such an opportunity in the past five years.
The third barrier is the lack of a regulatory environment. But now, regulatory authorities in many countries around the world are working hard to attract bitcoin and cryptocurrency companies to operate. Therefore, if we combine these three points, we can see that there are currently no substantial obstacles preventing the development of this trend. Next, it’s just a matter of how this trend continues to spread and expand.
The impact of accounting standards change on bitcoin
Bonnie:
Can you elaborate on the recent changes in accounting rules? Last year, Michael Saylor mentioned this issue, but we would like to know more details. How will this change help more companies buy bitcoin?
Brandon:
That’s a good question. First, I want to clarify that I am not a CFO or a professional accountant, so my explanation may not be comprehensive. Public companies typically follow GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles), which are set by the FASB (Financial Accounting Standards Board). In the past, bitcoin was classified as an 'intangible asset' by accounting rules. This meant that when companies recorded bitcoin on their balance sheets, they could only recognize it at the purchase price as its book value. If the price of bitcoin fell, companies had to recognize losses at market value (mark to market). But if the price of bitcoin rose, companies could not recognize this appreciation on their balance sheets. This rule was very disadvantageous for companies as it limited the market value assessment of bitcoin as an asset, thereby affecting their financing ability and market valuation. It can be said that this rule has long constrained companies' choices like 'handcuffs.'
In January of this year, this restriction was finally lifted. This change may prompt many previously hesitant companies to consider incorporating bitcoin into their balance sheets. An obvious impact is that this will change the composition of major indices like the S&P 500. Previously, due to accounting rules, companies like Microstrategy could not be included in the S&P 500 because they did not appear to be profitable. But with the change in accounting rules, Microstrategy's book profits can now be recognized, and it is likely to join the S&P 500.
Once Microstrategy is included in the S&P 500, significant changes will occur. Many index funds, such as Charles Schwab, Vanguard, and BlackRock, will passively invest in the S&P 500 components. This means that investor funds will indirectly flow into bitcoin through Microstrategy, as the company will convert its balance sheet funds into bitcoin. This passive influx of funds will create a 'flywheel effect,' further driving up the price of bitcoin. This is a very exciting change that could have a profound impact on the entire cryptocurrency market.
Bonnie:
For the average audience, they should pay attention to when Microstrategy is included in the S&P 500, right?
Brandon:
Indeed, this will be a very important observation point. I expect this change to happen soon, although the specific timing is still uncertain. But once it happens, you will see billions of dollars flowing into Microstrategy, and thus into bitcoin. This is because all passive funds investing in the S&P 500 must allocate funds to Microstrategy. This trend could become a significant force driving up the price of bitcoin.
Bitcoin Google Trends search volume
Bonnie:
I just checked Google Trends data and found that although bitcoin's search volume is close to an all-time high, the current interest index is only 25. In contrast, it reached 100 in December 2017, 69 in February 2022, but now it’s only 25. Why has people’s attention to bitcoin decreased?
Brandon:
In the past, many people would directly search for basic questions like 'What is bitcoin?' Now, the search content has become more specific and in-depth, such as 'How to buy bitcoin?', 'What is a bitcoin ETF?', 'Who is Michael Saylor?', 'What is the role of Microstrategy?', and even 'Why does Trump support bitcoin?'. This change reflects a gradual deepening of the market's understanding of bitcoin, and also suggests that the decline in bitcoin search volume may be more related to changes in search habits rather than a complete waning of interest.
Moreover, we are currently not in a frenzy phase of the bitcoin market. Looking back at the situation in December 2017, almost everyone was talking about bitcoin, even Uber drivers would chat about it with you. But the current market seems calmer and far from that level of public discussion. However, I believe this frenzy may reappear at some point in the future. According to Michael Turpin, we are still in the early stage of bitcoin market 'summer,' and we may see higher levels of attention and market activity in the future.
Timing for buying and selling bitcoin
Bonnie:
I once discussed with Michael Turpin in Las Vegas, who proposed a concept called the 'bitcoin seasonal theory.' He believes that buying bitcoin in the 'winter' (bear market) and selling in the 'summer' (bull market) can effectively accumulate more bitcoin. This is his strategy. Meanwhile, some believe that bitcoin should ideally never be sold because once sold, you may never be able to buy it back at a low price. What do you think about these two very different viewpoints?
Brandon:
This is a very interesting topic. I have been deeply involved in the cryptocurrency industry for eight years, but I must frankly say that I don’t think I can accurately grasp the timing of the market. As someone operating the largest cryptocurrency media and conferences, if anyone should know when to buy or sell, it should be me. But in reality, accurately timing the market is very difficult.
From historical performance, bitcoin is so far one of humanity's best assets. Therefore, trying to time the market, like buying in the 'winter' and selling in the 'summer,' is like picking up pennies in front of a speeding bulldozer, which may not be worth the risk.
Bitcoin originated in Asia【Important】
Bonnie:
If someone wants to participate in a truly unique and inspiring discussion, they might consider attending the upcoming bitcoin conference in Hong Kong. So, what can we expect from this conference?
Brandon:
First of all, I am very excited to return to Asia. Many people may not know that the earliest bitcoin community actually originated in Asia. When I first joined the bitcoin industry in 2017, almost all important activities were concentrated in Shanghai, Japan, and Hong Kong. Many well-known startups, such as Bitmax, FTX, and Three Arrows Capital, developed in Singapore and Hong Kong. It wasn’t until 2021 that bitcoin activities gradually shifted to the West, but that doesn’t mean Asia's influence has diminished. In fact, some early bitcoin veterans and whales are still active in places like Hong Kong, Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Tokyo.
I am particularly looking forward to this conference because it provides an opportunity for members of the OG bitcoin community to regroup. Especially for miners from Sichuan, China, who have become the backbone of global bitcoin mining due to abundant hydropower resources. This conference will focus on bitcoin itself and will not involve discussions about other altcoins or tokens. This focus makes me feel that bitcoin remains one of the most exciting innovations in the world today. I feel very honored to participate in such a platform to discuss, learn, and gain a deeper understanding of bitcoin.
Currently, the financial industry in Hong Kong is undergoing significant changes, with new companies emerging continuously. At the same time, many new enterprises (like Metaplanet) are also rising in Seoul, Japan, and Thailand in the cryptocurrency space. Now is an exciting moment; we are in a bitcoin bull market, and the price of bitcoin has broken through $118,000. This will attract many newcomers, and it will be their first time attending a bitcoin conference.
In addition, this conference has invited many heavyweight speakers, some of whom have yet to be announced. I believe their sharing will open the eyes of the participants. Therefore, this conference is definitely worth looking forward to and cannot be missed.
The Trump family up close
Bonnie:
The speakers at this event are really special, and Eric Trump will also be present. Can you talk about your conversation with him? How did you persuade him to fly to Hong Kong?
Brandon:
Eric is someone we met through our collaboration with President Trump. In 2024, President Trump gave a speech in Nashville, and we participated in formulating his bitcoin policies. These policies were later incorporated into the formal framework of the government. In this process, we not only met President Trump but also engaged with his son Eric, Donald Trump's younger son, and members of their team. Especially Eric, who has a deep understanding of bitcoin and can be said to have started paying attention to bitcoin earlier than many.
When I first communicated with Eric, we started off discussing a technical topic: whether his company should adopt multi-signature technology (which requires multiple signatures to complete a transaction) to manage funds or continue using third-party custodial services. We also discussed the risk trade-offs between self-custody and multi-signature. I initially thought we would talk about basic topics, like the differences between bitcoin and ethereum, but I didn’t expect he already had a deep understanding of these technologies.
Recently, he was announced as a member of the advisory board of Metaplanet, which further reflects his expertise in the cryptocurrency field. He has not only a wealth of knowledge but can also bring about positive changes for the entire industry by influencing President Trump's decisions. Therefore, he is a very influential figure, and we are pleased to have invited him to this event.
During the Las Vegas event, we introduced him to our plans, including the upcoming roadshow in Hong Kong. He asked us whether there was an active bitcoin community in Hong Kong. We replied, of course! Hong Kong has a large bitcoin community. He was very interested and expressed a desire to communicate with bitcoin enthusiasts around the world, especially because of his collaboration with Metaplanet, hoping to participate in events in a more meaningful way.
Therefore, this event is the best place for him to make a real appearance in Hong Kong. He is very excited about this. I think there will be many interesting intersections during the event, and different individuals will have the opportunity to meet Eric, and vice versa.
The term 'bitcoin believers' used to have negative connotations.
Bonnie:
You have been in the bitcoin field for a long time; has the definition of being a bitcoin believer changed for you? Many people, when they first come into contact with cryptocurrency, usually start by understanding bitcoin, but later may be attracted by some altcoins or memes that have amazing gains, such as those that have multiplied in price tenfold or even a hundredfold in a short time. Would you consider yourself an 'old-timer' in the crypto world?
Brandon:
That's an interesting question. When I entered the field in 2017, Vitalik Buterin wrote for (Bitcoin Magazine), and I had a few exchanges with him in the early stages of Bitcoin Magazine. He is the creator of the term 'bitcoin maximalist,' but at that time, the term carried a derogatory connotation, specifically referring to those uninterested in Ethereum. Back then, Ethereum was still in its early stages, and the mainstream view in the bitcoin community was that all attention should be focused on bitcoin. Vitalik used this term to mock those who only focused on bitcoin.
When I first entered the cryptocurrency field, the term 'bitcoin maximalist' was indeed seen as a negative label. At that time, it was not yet clear whether bitcoin would become the dominant force in cryptocurrency. It wasn't until the bear market of 2018 that this viewpoint began to change. At that time, there were a large number of ICO projects and altcoins launched via Ethereum, but their values plummeted during the bear market. In contrast, while bitcoin also dropped 75% to 80%, many other projects went nearly to zero. This made people start to rethink what was the most worthy asset to invest in during a bear market.
I believe it was in 2018 that bitcoin truly demonstrated its value as a safe haven asset. Since then, the viewpoint of 'bitcoin maximalists' has gradually been accepted by more people. The so-called bitcoin maximalism recognizes that there are many different projects and coins in the cryptocurrency space, but the goal of bitcoin is to establish a globally decentralized currency system, which is unique. Therefore, bitcoin needs to be viewed separately. While there are other interesting projects in the cryptocurrency space, to me, they are not as important as bitcoin. That is my view.
The most astonishing bitcoin theory
Bonnie:
You’ve interacted with many people in the bitcoin circle and heard a lot of unique perspectives about bitcoin. What is your favorite theory? Or has there been any recent discovery related to bitcoin that has shocked you?
I can share an example first. Michael Turpin once mentioned that globally, only 2.5 bitcoins will be mined in the next 40 years. When I heard that data, I was stunned - 2.5 bitcoins mined in 40 years! Because that time span is so far away, it's almost unimaginable. This was a recent 'shock moment' for me.
Brandon:
Yes, we can look at the total supply of bitcoin; currently, 19.9 million bitcoins have been mined. The last bitcoin will be mined in 2140, meaning there are about 116 years left from now. In the next 116 years, we need to mine the remaining 1.1 million bitcoins. This alone is enough to tell you that there aren’t many bitcoins left.
