On Wednesday, the crypto market continued to decline across the board, seemingly driven by ETH's pullback to the 30-day line at $3974; BTC continued to fall to the 113k-114k range, almost erasing all gains since August.
Today's hot opportunity:
1. Federal Reserve Vice Chair Bowman suggested allowing staff to hold a small amount of cryptocurrency to avoid out-of-touch regulation.
2. Trump urges Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut interest rates, claiming his policies harm the real estate industry and hinder mortgages.
3. On-chain data: BitMine purchased ETH since July 9, holding 1,523,373 coins as of August 17, with an average price of $3,730; SharpLink purchased ETH since June 13, holding 740,760 coins as of August 17, with an average price of $3,478.
4. In the last 24 hours, the entire network saw liquidations of $532 million, with Ethereum accounting for $199 million.
5. Kanye's coin YZY was once again hyped, with its market cap soaring from 3M to 150M before falling back to 3M.
6. On-chain Light surged, with participants in the money-throwing event seeing nearly 5 times returns.
BTC
Today, Bitcoin ETF funds have continued to see net outflows. If you want to safely buy the dip, it is advisable to wait until there is a net inflow of funds before considering it. Although it may not be the lowest price at that time, it is definitely better than buying the dip and getting trapped. If there continues to be net outflows, then do not attempt to buy the dip.
If BTC continues to decline, and the 1-hour level big bearish candle breaks 112k and cannot recover, then the trend is clearly deteriorating, and one can short, with the first target around 74k, achieving a profit of about 33.9%. Although it did not short at the top of 124k, you can profit from a significant wave of movements once the trend becomes apparent.
Although the overall trend is bearish, there is a possibility of a short-term rebound for three reasons:
Firstly, the $112,000 level is both the position of the upward trend line and a key point for stop-loss swaps.
Secondly, the panic selling the previous night may trigger a technical rebound;
Thirdly, retail investors and some bulls may be trying to support the market here.
Currently, the hourly chart has a 'double bottom' prototype (not fully formed yet). It is advisable to try buying in small positions at lower levels, but consider reducing positions when rebounding to the 114,000 - 115,000 (downward trend line resistance) area. This area may face resistance again, and it might first fake break below 112,000 before starting a larger rebound.
If there is indeed a significant rebound, the target is 120,000 - 122,000, which is the 0.618 retracement zone and a dense trading area, making it an ideal rebound high point; if it encounters resistance here during the rebound, it would be a good opportunity to short at high levels, targeting $98,000 or even $74,000.
ETH
Yesterday's article (August 19 analysis: Bitcoin plummets 3,000 points, will it drop further? Has Ethereum stopped falling? Key buy points for the dip! JAKPOT surges 243 times! These altcoins will explode!) just mentioned: 'The ETH futures gap at 4086, combined with $1 billion in liquidity,' and then it plummeted to 4150-4133, leading to over $1 billion in long liquidations. As long as it does not break 4000, Ethereum still has a chance, after all, there is still a massive amount of liquidity piled up above 4800.
To profit in the market based on understanding, one must first comprehend the intentions and operations of the main players.
Some say K lines are useless, but market sentiment is reflected on the charts. Looking at the daily trend of Ethereum (see below), the recent market started washing out as it approached a new high. The analysis during the previous pullback has proven accurate. The market once retraced to the 4150-4200 dollar range, with the price around 4400 dollars at the time of the screenshot.
This round of retracement has caused anxiety for many ETH holders, and such situations are common in bull markets: some people sell and exit the market just after a dump, some get shaken out during the rise and consolidation, and some still hold on, guessing the top.
Currently, the key for Ethereum is whether it can hold the 4000 level. It may rebound first, but the overall structure is unlikely to hold at 4060 and initiate a large rebound, with a low probability of hitting 4353 or 4500.
For short-term trading at the 15-minute level, 4200 is a short-term resistance, and long positions bought in the 4050-4100 area can take profits near 4200. Subsequent 'double dips' or even a fake breakdown below 4000 to around 3930 before recovering might lead to a larger rebound. (If Bitcoin cannot hold 111900, Ethereum will also struggle, and it may dip to 3900 or even 3500 in the short term.)
$OK token is truly resilient! The market correction had no impact at all!
Since the official announcement of a one-time burn on August 13, I informed everyone immediately, and its price rose from a high of 46 to 142, more than tripling. After subsequent pullbacks, it stabilized around 100, but this momentum clearly indicates that it has not yet peaked.
Regarding why I am optimistic about it, I have explained it clearly in my internal group, and I also provided a code yesterday, and yes, that is it. In the short term, there are basically ten points to be gained, and for the long term, just holding is fine.
