Why do contracts always lead to liquidation? It's not bad luck; it's because you haven't fully grasped the essence of trading! This rule of low-risk gleaned from ten years of trading experience will completely refresh your understanding of contract trading — liquidation is never the market's fault, but a time bomb you've planted yourself.
Three major truths that refresh cognition
Leverage is not risk: Position is the key line of life and death
Using 1% position at 100x leverage, the actual risk is only equivalent to 1% of a fully invested spot position. One student used 20x leverage to trade ETH, only investing 2% of his principal each time, and has no liquidation records over three years. Core formula: Real risk = Leverage multiplier × Position ratio.
Stop loss is not a loss: The ultimate protection for the account
During the 312 crash in 2024, 78% of liquidated accounts shared a common characteristic: losses exceeded 5% but stop losses were still not set. The iron rule for professional traders is: a single loss cannot exceed 2% of the principal, which is equivalent to setting a 'circuit fuse' for the account.
Rolling over is not all-in: The correct way to apply compound interest
Step-by-step position building model: The first position is 10% for trial and error, using 10% of profits to increase the position. With a 50,000 principal, the first position is 5000 yuan (10x leverage), and for every 10% profit, 500 yuan is added to the position. When BTC rises from 75,000 to 82,500, the total position only expands by 10%, but the safety margin increases by 30%.
Institutional-grade risk control model
Dynamic position formula
Total position ≤ (Principal × 2%) / (Stop loss range × Leverage multiplier)
Example: 50,000 principal, 2% stop loss, 10x leverage, calculated maximum position = 50000 × 0.02 / (0.02 × 10) = 5000 yuan
Three-stage profit-taking method
① Close 1/3 of the position at 20% profit ② Close another 1/3 at 50% profit ③ For the remaining position, implement a trailing stop loss (exit if it falls below the 5-day line)
In the 2024 halving market, this strategy increased the value of 50,000 principal to one million across two trends, with a return rate exceeding 1900%
Hedging insurance
Empirical data on fatal traps
Holding positions for 4 hours: The probability of liquidation increases to 92%
High-frequency trading: An average of 500 operations per month will deplete 24% of the principal
Profit greed: 83% of accounts that fail to take profits in time will give back profits
IV. Mathematical explanation of the essence of trading
Expected profit = (Win rate × Average profit) - (Loss rate × Average loss)
When setting a 2% stop loss and a 20% profit, only a 34% win rate is needed to achieve positive returns. Professional traders achieve annual returns exceeding 400% through strict stop losses (average loss of 1.5%) and capturing trends (average profit of 15%).
Ultimate rule:
Single loss ≤ 2%
Annual trades ≤ 20
Profit and loss ratio ≥ 3:1
70% of the time waiting in cash
The essence of the market is a probability game; smart traders risk 2% to seek trend dividends.
