First, the event trigger: Trump's late-night remarks stir the crypto market
Late at night local time, former U.S. President Donald Trump published weighty remarks on his social media account, clearly stating that "Bitcoin should perhaps be included in the category of U.S. national strategic reserve assets," and asserting that "the rise of cryptocurrencies should not be ignored, but should instead be transformed into a part of national financial competitiveness." Once this statement was released, it quickly triggered a chain reaction in the global crypto market — Bitcoin's price surged over 5% within an hour, breaking through the $42,000 mark, achieving the largest single-day increase in nearly a month; mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum and Litecoin also followed suit, with a combined market capitalization increase of over $20 billion. Meanwhile, related U.S. stocks surged in after-hours trading, with shares of Coinbase and MicroStrategy rising more than 3%, and market sentiment instantly shifted from cautious observation to optimism.
Second, the "strategic reserve" proposal: feasibility and real-world obstacles coexist
Trump's statement linking Bitcoin to "national strategic reserves" is not the first time someone has mentioned this, but given his political influence, it still carries special significance. From a logical perspective, there are two core reasons supporting this proposal: first, Bitcoin's "decentralized" nature allows it to avoid the credit risk of a single sovereign currency, which may serve as a complementary reserve asset beyond gold amid intensifying global geopolitical conflicts and challenges to the dollar's credit system; second, the United States is currently the core hub of the global cryptocurrency industry chain, and including Bitcoin in the strategic reserve could both consolidate its leading position in the crypto space and reduce dependence on traditional reserve assets through asset diversification.
However, the real-world obstacles facing this proposal are more pronounced. First, national strategic reserve assets need to possess stability and controllability, but Bitcoin's price volatility far exceeds that of gold (with Bitcoin's volatility around 60% in the past year compared to gold's 15%), and large-scale inclusion in reserves may lead to drastic fluctuations in the national balance sheet, contradicting the core goal of "preserving and increasing value" of reserve assets. Second, the current regulatory framework in the U.S. does not have a unified attitude towards cryptocurrencies — the Federal Reserve has repeatedly emphasized the "financial risks" of cryptocurrencies, and the Treasury has not clarified their status as legitimate financial assets. If Bitcoin is to be included in strategic reserves, it must overcome multiple regulatory barriers, making the probability of implementation in the short term extremely low. Additionally, globally, no sovereign country has officially listed cryptocurrencies as strategic reserves, lacking mature operational experience and valuation systems, which adds uncertainty to the advancement of this proposal.
Third, the essence of the crypto market's "positive news": driven more by sentiment than fundamental changes
The recent rise in the crypto market triggered by Trump's remarks is essentially a short-term sentiment driven by the "celebrity effect + speculative expectations", and has not yet touched on fundamental changes in the crypto market. From a short-term perspective, this statement indeed alleviated market concerns about the U.S. strengthening crypto regulation — previously, the market was generally worried that the U.S. might implement stricter cryptocurrency tax policies or trading restrictions, while Trump's remarks conveyed a "relatively friendly" signal, boosting market confidence. However, from a long-term perspective, the trend of the crypto market still depends on three core factors: first, the regulatory policy orientation of major global economies (such as the EU's MiCA regulations and the enforcement dynamics of the U.S. SEC); second, the continued inflow of institutional funds (currently, there has not been a significant increase in holdings of crypto funds by institutions such as Grayscale and BlackRock); third, the practical application of crypto technology (such as the large-scale application of blockchain in supply chains and cross-border payments).
It is worth noting that historical data shows that "rallies driven by celebrity statements" often come with higher risks of pullbacks. After Elon Musk mentioned Bitcoin multiple times in 2021, Bitcoin experienced two short-term pullbacks of over 20%; in 2023, when Federal Reserve officials mentioned "easing crypto regulation," the market only maintained optimistic sentiment for three days. After the recent short-term surge in Bitcoin, some investors have begun to take profits, and the long-short ratio in the futures market has dropped from 1.8 to 1.5, indicating that there are still doubts about the sustainability of the "super positive news."
Fourth, conclusion: rationally view the "positive news" and focus on long-term value
Trump's mention of Bitcoin as a national strategic reserve undoubtedly injects a dose of "stimulation" into the long-silent crypto market, but investors need to be clear that this statement is currently more of a "political expression" rather than a "policy blueprint," and it is unlikely to translate into real positive effects in the short term. For ordinary investors, one should not blindly follow the trend to chase prices, but should focus on the long-term value of cryptocurrencies — if the future of crypto technology can truly address pain points in the real economy, the regulatory framework becomes clearer, and institutional funds continue to enter, the crypto market may usher in a true "super cycle"; conversely, relying solely on short-term statements for speculation may ultimately fall into the dilemma of "buying high and being trapped."
In the coming period, the market needs to pay close attention to two dynamics: first, whether Trump will include the "cryptocurrency strategy" in his potential 2024 presidential campaign agenda, forming more specific policy proposals; second, whether the U.S. Department of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve will respond officially to the "Bitcoin strategic reserve" proposal, which will directly affect the direction of market sentiment.
