Harvard economist Kenneth Rogoff had predicted that Bitcoin prices were more likely to fall to $100 before reaching $100,000. However, seven years later, Bitcoin not only surpassed $100,000 but also soared over 80% in December 2024, setting a new historical high. In the face of this dramatic market performance, Rogoff acknowledged that his predictions contained three major errors and reflected on the roots of these mistakes on the social media platform X. Although he remains skeptical about cryptocurrencies, this public acknowledgment has sparked heated discussions in the crypto community and revealed Bitcoin's increasingly important role in the global financial landscape.
Background of Predictive Errors
In March 2018, Rogoff predicted on the CNBC program (Squawk Box) that Bitcoin prices would plunge to $100 due to government regulatory pressure. As a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and author of (Our Dollars, Your Problem) (published in May 2025), Rogoff's views garnered widespread attention at the time. However, since then, Bitcoin prices have surged over 1000%, from the lows of 2018 to surpassing $100,000 in December 2024, becoming a dark horse in the global financial market.
On August 20, 2025, Rogoff posted on the X platform, publicly reflecting on his prediction mistakes: 'About ten years ago, I said Bitcoin was more likely to be worth $100 rather than $100,000. What did I miss?' He pointed out that his mistakes were mainly concentrated in three areas: misjudging the regulatory environment, underestimating Bitcoin's potential as a medium of exchange, and neglecting the involvement of institutional investors in the crypto market.
Error 1: Overestimated the strength of U.S. regulation
Rogoff first admitted that he was overly optimistic about the U.S. government's ability to quickly implement 'reasonable regulation' on cryptocurrencies. In 2018, he predicted that strict regulation would suppress Bitcoin prices, but the reality was quite the opposite. Especially after the Trump administration won the election in November 2024, the policy environment for cryptocurrencies in the U.S. became more lenient, driving the surge in Bitcoin prices. Rogoff stated: 'I thought regulation would be quickly in place, but clearly, I overestimated this.'
In fact, the regulatory framework in the U.S. has gradually clarified over the past few years, but it has not dealt a devastating blow to the crypto market. On the contrary, legislative proposals like the (GENIUS Act) have provided a clearer regulatory path for stablecoins and crypto assets, attracting more participation from institutional investors. This relaxed regulatory environment has provided fertile ground for Bitcoin's rise, rendering Rogoff's predictions excessively pessimistic.
Error 2: Underestimated the competition between Bitcoin and fiat currency
Rogoff's second mistake was believing that Bitcoin could not compete with fiat currency and become the preferred medium of exchange for the global underground economy. He wrote on X: 'I do not believe Bitcoin can become the medium of exchange for a $20 trillion underground economy.' However, reality has proven that Bitcoin has become an important inflation hedge in countries with significant devaluation of their national currencies. For example, in high-inflation economies like Venezuela and Argentina, Bitcoin is widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange.
According to Chainalysis, the amount of illegal activities related to cryptocurrencies in 2024 is approximately $50 billion, accounting for less than 1% of cash laundering amounts. This indicates that although Bitcoin has certain applications in the underground economy, its more important role is as a hedge tool for legitimate assets. Rogoff underestimated Bitcoin's appeal in combating the devaluation of fiat currency within the global financial system.
Error 3: Ignored the influence of institutional investors
Rogoff's third mistake was failing to foresee the acceptance of cryptocurrencies by regulatory agencies and large institutional investors. He stated: 'I did not anticipate that regulatory agencies, especially the overarching regulators, would recklessly hold hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars in cryptocurrencies, seemingly without consequence.' This observation points to the enormous driving force of institutional investors in the Bitcoin market.
Ironically, Harvard University's own investment behavior also confirms this trend. Reports indicate that the Harvard Management Company, responsible for managing Harvard University's $53 billion endowment fund, recently invested $116 million in BlackRock's spot Bitcoin ETF. This move indicates that even the bastion of traditional finance is beginning to embrace Bitcoin, starkly contrasting Rogoff's pessimistic predictions.
Response from the Crypto Community: Victory and Echo Chamber Struggles
Rogoff's public acknowledgment of his mistakes has sparked enthusiastic responses in the crypto community, with many seeing it as a symbol of Bitcoin's success. Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise, responded that Rogoff 'failed to imagine a decentralized project—a project powered by the people rather than centralized institutions—could achieve such massive success.' He believes Bitcoin's rise is due to its decentralized nature and the support of the global community.
David Lawant, a researcher at digital asset brokerage FalconX, stated that Rogoff's work (The Curse of Cash) is 'very poor' and instead motivated him to invest in Bitcoin. He wrote on X: 'It was your book that prompted me to invest in BTC, thank you!' Meanwhile, Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, listed Rogoff as the ninth most vocal critic of Bitcoin, accusing him of 'prematurely writing the obituary for Bitcoin' and 'living in an echo chamber.' Sigel further pointed out that Rogoff's restriction on replies to X posts reflects his closed-mindedness towards differing opinions.
Sigel emphasized that Bitcoin's success is based on several fundamental factors: the continuous devaluation of fiat currencies, the transfer of wealth to younger generations, and the global demand for neutral reserve assets. These factors have collectively driven Bitcoin's transformation from a fringe asset to a mainstream investment tool.
Reflection and Outlook
Rogoff's acknowledgment of his mistakes not only signifies recognition of the resilience of the Bitcoin market but also reflects the astonishing evolution of cryptocurrencies over the past decade. From an asset questioned as a bubble to one widely accepted by institutional investors today, Bitcoin's rise challenges the predictive frameworks of traditional economists. Rogoff's reflection reminds us that the pace of financial innovation often exceeds the capacity of academic predictions, especially driven by decentralized technologies and global market demands.
Although Rogoff remains skeptical about cryptocurrencies, his public acknowledgment of errors provides a victorious moment for the crypto community. The breakthrough in Bitcoin prices and the influx of institutional investments indicate that cryptocurrencies are no longer a fringe phenomenon but an integral part of the global financial system. In the future, as the regulatory environment becomes clearer and more institutions participate, Bitcoin may continue to rewrite the rules of traditional finance.
For investors and observers, Rogoff's story serves as a reminder: in the rapidly changing digital economy, maintaining an open mindset and keen insight into new technologies is crucial. As Sigel said, 'Fundamentals matter.' Bitcoin's success stems not only from technological innovation but also from the global urgent demand for decentralized, value-storing assets.
