In August of this year, Bitcoin broke through the $120,000 mark, but those once-popular altcoins have hit a pause button, with prices stagnating, and even 90% of smaller coins are still struggling at low levels. Retail investors can't help but ask, 'Is the altcoin season over?' Don't rush, the reality is more complex than you think.
First, the 'money-absorbing' effect of Bitcoin is slowing down. Data shows that Bitcoin's market capitalization share has dropped from 60% in November last year to 51%. If it falls below 50%, funds may gradually flow into altcoins. Meanwhile, the market capitalization of stablecoins has soared to $160 billion, and this 'ammunition' could surge into the more promising altcoin market at any time.
Looking at the policy side, the recent (cryptocurrency sovereign law) has temporarily exempted some meme coins from the pressure of securities regulation, and the SEC's attitude towards liquid staking tokens has also become more lenient. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in September, which is seen as good news for altcoins, with average gains for altcoins expected to exceed those of Bitcoin by more than three times.
On the institutional side, big names like Grayscale and BlackRock are quietly increasing their positions in altcoins, even launching bond token products with annualized returns of 5%-7%. The Ethereum ecosystem, AI tokens, and some low-fee meme coins have also received attention. Retail investors' 'FOMO' (fear of missing out) sentiment still exists, but everyone is being more rational and no longer blindly rushing in.
Looking back at the ICO frenzy of 2017, it was a nationwide celebration, but most projects collapsed due to lack of actual value. Now in 2025, the altcoin season has turned into an 'elite game', focusing on whether projects have real income, technical strength, and market recognition, such as Lido's staking returns consistently ranking at the top.
So, when will the altcoin season really arrive? Multiple factors point to September: the interest rate cut, capital overflow from Ethereum ETFs, and significant policy narratives working together, which may trigger a wave of altcoin enthusiasm. But risks also exist, such as market manipulation by market makers and fluctuating regulatory policies that could affect trends.
As a retail investor, never blindly 'go all in'. Remember, when selecting projects, look for those with a market capitalization below $1 billion and solid fundamentals. Control your position size to not exceed 30% of your total portfolio, and ideally, do not hold more than 5% in a single coin. Use tools to monitor the movements of large holders, take profits and reduce positions in a timely manner, and hedge risks with options or VIX when necessary.
In summary: The altcoin season has not disappeared; it has just changed its approach. Making money relies not on luck but on recognizing trends and selecting valuable projects with a stable layout. The market has become smarter; stop blindly chasing trends, find the right direction, and you can truly make money in a bull market!
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The above content is for information sharing only and does not constitute any investment advice!#加密市场回调 #山寨季何时到来？
