After Bitcoin broke through the historical high of $125,000, it plummeted to $113,000, evaporating nearly $1 trillion in market value. Ethereum fell from $4,788 to below $4,200, with a weekly drop of over 13%. The sudden 'high-altitude dive' caused over $1 billion in leveraged positions across the network to vanish, turning countless contract accounts to dust.
In the past 24 hours, a total of 151,458 people have been liquidated across the network, with a total liquidation amount of $537 million; long positions liquidated $463 million, and short positions liquidated $73.71 million.
BTC
Bitcoin futures lack buying momentum, and minor fluctuations lead to panic selling. Recently, due to ETF sell-offs, the price was directly pushed back to 113,000. Looking at the daily chart, after BTC broke the new high, it has been continuously declining with no buffer space. The bear's goal is to force the bulls to give up all profits, leaving retail investors caught between chasing long and short positions.
Overall, the bear-dominated pattern will continue in the short term. If this week's closing is not good, the weekly K chart will form a large double top, requiring at least one month of consolidation and digestion, coinciding with the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement. Hopefully, the bulls can hold the 111,000 level this week.
Strategy: Ideal 112722, pessimistic 109588.
Short near 114600-114300, defend at 115300, target around 112900-112600; if broken, watch 112000-111700; if not broken, take long.
ETH
Recently, Ethereum's wash trading has been quite harsh, dropping nearly 20% from its peak. The moment it fell below the critical line of 4160, it showed an overall bearish trend with insufficient upward momentum. From a daily chart perspective, the pullback has reached a critical position, with MA30 support below and the 4000 integer level providing dual support.
The current price is below the EMA24/52 moving averages, with EMA24 crossing below EMA52 forming a death cross, indicating a clear bearish signal for the medium to long term. The KDJ has a death cross, but J value is oversold, so there may be a short-term rebound. If it can hold above 4000 in the short term, it will later challenge the 4400 resistance level.
Strategy: Ideal 4034, pessimistic 3900.
Short near 4200-4230, defend at 4280, target around 4100-4130; if broken, watch 4060-4000; if not broken, take long.
Why did Ethereum drop again, and will it rise?
After 9 days, the gap between 4098 and 4230 for ETH has been filled, and the only remaining gap is between 2835 and 2925. (Although gaps are esoteric, the probability of filling them is indeed quite high.) Especially, the probability of filling gaps generated in the first month is still very high, but after a month, it's purely a matter of fate.
Ethereum spot ETFs have seen a net outflow for three consecutive days, with $416 million flowing out yesterday, indicating a bit of panic in the market, especially among speculative funds that are starting to flee. This is one of the reasons for Ethereum's continuous decline recently.
The key directions and current strategies for the future of the cryptocurrency industry can focus on several points:
In this round of 'water buffalo,' only coin-related stocks have discussion value; most altcoins have been abandoned by their project teams. Investing in altcoins should be like a VC considering the team; only teams that deliver deserve attention.
The end of the bull market depends on Wall Street's purchasing power; if the U.S. continues to incur debt, print money, and lower interest rates to release liquidity, the market may continue, otherwise it may end. Currently, there are signs of rising prices in the U.S., with expectations of two interest rate cuts in the second half of the year (probability of 25 basis points cut in September exceeding 70%, only 50% in October). If CPI rises, there may only be one cut, which is unfavorable for the market.
If CPI rises, there may only be one cut, which is unfavorable for the market.
"Cautiously optimistic, fighting while retreating." The louder the call for a bull market, the greater the noise; maintain your clarity. When the avalanche comes, no snowflake is innocent.
The core narrative of this bull market is 'everything on-chain.' Future opportunities lie in RWA and stablecoins, but they require strong endorsements from institutions/governments and will face obstacles (touching the interests of intermediaries). Bitcoin's position is solid, while other coins are mostly short-term fads. Long-term investors can hold Bitcoin, participate in RWA projects after a crash, and may grasp the next alpha opportunity.
