Good morning, everyone!
The market has been experiencing a correction in recent days, with market panic clearly rising. The panic index has fallen from 73 last week to 44, its lowest level since June 22nd. After over a month of continuous growth, a correction is normal.
Two major events will impact market trends this week: the Federal Reserve will meet Thursday morning to decide whether to cut interest rates in September; and Powell will deliver a speech on Friday. Given stubborn inflation, if he signals he's not in a rush to cut rates, the market is likely to fall further. Meanwhile, BTC ETFs have seen $500 million in outflows in recent days, with some funds already withdrawing early.
Technically, BTC has fallen below its 60-day moving average, meaning that investors who entered the market over the past two months are largely trading below their cost-to-earnings level. The current price is very close to the 99-day moving average, significantly reducing risk. However, caution should be exercised against a potential blow. If US stocks continue to fall after Powell's speech, BTC could still see a 3%-5% downside.
Therefore, if there's a last leg down, a price near $110,000 would be a great bargain hunting opportunity. In contrast, ETH's recent gains have been excessive. Although its 60-day moving average is at $3,400, if it falls below $3,900, it would be safer to enter the market in batches based on the situation.
