Brothers, good morning!
The market is starting to cool down, and the fear index has dropped to 44, reaching a new low since June 22. Compared to last week's high of 73, the sentiment has clearly retreated — after rising for a month, a correction is normal.
There are two key events to keep an eye on this week:
1. The Fed's interest rate decision early Thursday morning, determining whether to cut rates in September;
2. Powell will also give a speech on Friday.
Currently, inflation remains stubborn, and he is likely to take a hawkish stance, not ruling out the signal of “not cutting rates.” Some funds have already started to hedge in advance, with a net outflow of 500 million USD from BTC ETF in the past few days, indicating that large funds are also on the sidelines.
From a technical perspective, BTC has broken below the 60-day moving average, which is the average cost line over the past two months, and is currently testing the support of the 99-day moving average. This position has actually released quite a bit of risk, but one should not be blindly optimistic — be wary of a final drop. If the stock market significantly corrects after Powell's speech, BTC could likely drop another 3%-5%.
If a sharp decline occurs, buying in batches can start if it drops to 110000. ETH has risen too much this time, and the 60-day moving average is still at 3400. If it doesn't fall below 3900, don't rush to act; prioritize BTC.
In summary, maintain patience, control your position, and don’t let panic disrupt your rhythm at critical moments. Opportunities arise from declines, but don't catch falling knives.
