Hello everyone, this is Zhou Zhou!
After several weeks of crazy rises, the rhythm of the crypto market seems to be slowing down. Bitcoin ( #BTC ) and Ethereum ( #ETH ) as leading assets are engaged in a struggle on different battlefields: Bitcoin is undergoing high-level consolidation after setting a historical high, while Ethereum faces the largest short positions in history. The market atmosphere is tense, yet there is a hidden sense of "calm before the storm" 🌪️.#加密市场回调
For investors, this is not just a digital game, but a test of patience, judgment, and mindset. Today, let's break down this brewing drama together. #山寨季何时到来？
BTC: High places are cold, long-term holders are quietly trying to sell.
Bitcoin (BTC) once broke through $124,000 last week, setting a new historical high. However, the good times didn't last long, as the price quickly retraced, currently hovering around $113,000, about a 7% drop from the peak. This trend inevitably reminds us of an old saying: "The taller the tree, the more it attracts the wind, high places are cold."
On-chain data shows that the behavior of long-term holders (LTH) is becoming the focus of market attention. CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA pointed out that Bitcoin is currently in a profit range of 150% to 350%.
This means that most old players still have their positions in a comfort zone, and the impulse to sell has not yet reached the frenzy level seen at the peaks of the bull markets in 2017 or 2021.
But don’t forget, when BTC approaches the +500% profit range, there tends to be a significant wave of profit-taking, leading to a peak. In other words, while the market still has room to rise, the shadow of risk is also gradually approaching.📊
In the short term, BTC may continue to fluctuate within a range, with investors showing strong cautious sentiment; however, if demand continues, the next stop might be the range of $124,000 to $178,000. In the medium term, if LTH's selling pressure amplifies like in 2021, it is not ruled out that BTC could reach a peak above $150,000.
ETH: Short sellers are pressuring, is an epic reversal coming?
On the other hand, Ethereum (ETH), the king of smart contracts, is facing a completely different storyline. ETH recently dropped below $4300, currently fluctuating around $4120, with a significant gap from the previous high of $4800.
Most notably: The market is accumulating the largest short positions in history!
Analyst Ted Pillows warns that if ETH stabilizes at this level and begins to rebound, short sellers may be forced to collectively close their positions, triggering a large-scale "short squeeze". This scenario has occurred in the past — often igniting a market rally in a short time, leaving short sellers regretting while long holders reap the rewards 😏.
However, reality is not without pressure. Ethereum spot ETFs have seen net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow reaching as high as $416 million yesterday.
This indicates that speculative funds in the market are showing signs of panic exit, becoming an important driving force behind the recent drop in ETH.
The good news is that from a technical perspective, as long as ETH holds above the 200-day moving average (around $3920), the overall trend remains under bullish control. In other words, there may be increased volatility in the short term, but the long-term logic still points upward.
Macro perspective: The symphony of Bitcoin and Ethereum
If we look at the current states of Bitcoin and Ethereum together, an interesting conclusion can be drawn:
Bitcoin: In a bull market at a high position, but old players have not gone crazy selling, meaning short-term risks are controllable but vigilance is necessary.
Ethereum: Facing pressure from short sellers, but a potential short squeeze could happen at any time, becoming the biggest variable in the market.
This is like a symphony: Bitcoin plays a stable and heavy bass, while Ethereum may at any moment bring forth a soaring climax. With the addition of some emerging public chains and Layer 2 projects, the entire crypto market's melody may be entering a brand new climax phase 🎶.
Looking ahead: Possible scenarios for 2025 and 2026
Short-term (next few weeks): BTC will consolidate, and ETH may experience a rapid rebound due to short squeezing.
Medium-term (by the end of 2025): If LTH selling intensifies, Bitcoin may reach its peak above $150,000; if funds flow back into Ethereum, it may challenge $5000 or even higher again.
Long-term (2026): Currently, there is no "bottom alert" on-chain, which means the market is likely still in the second half of a bull market, rather than a complete bear market. In other words, the climax may not have arrived yet.
Summary: Patience is the greatest weapon
Whether it is Bitcoin's high-level consolidation or Ethereum's pressure from short sellers, both remind us of a fact: the crypto market is always full of drama. For investors, the key is not to guess the next K-line, but how to remain calm amidst the fluctuations and leverage the extreme volatility of market sentiment to gain an advantage.
After all, in the crypto circle, sometimes the strongest weapon is not leverage or news, but — patience and faith.💡
Many understand the trend, but few follow the rhythm correctly.
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In the current market environment, short-term operations are indeed necessary. If one keeps waiting for spot prices to rebound, they may feel the agony of time. I have recently been fully engaged in secondary short-term and primary '土狗' operations, achieving good results. Friends who want to join can follow me privately!
