Reviewing Historical Cycles: Will the Market Rise After September's Rate Cut?

Looking back at the five major rate cut cycles of the Federal Reserve in history, the market performance after rate cuts has varied and cannot simply be equated with a bull market signal. Rate cuts can be categorized as preemptive (like in 1995 and 2019) and crisis-related (like in 2001 and 2008); the former often boosts the market, while the latter is often accompanied by crises and declines.

1990-1992: In response to the subprime crisis and the Gulf War, the economy warmed after rate cuts, with the Nasdaq rising 47.4%.

1995-1998: In anticipation of economic slowdown and the Asian financial crisis, the Nasdaq rose 134.6% after rate cuts.

2001-2003: After the burst of the internet bubble and the 9/11 incident, significant rate cuts led to a decline in the stock market, with the Nasdaq falling 12.6%.

2007-2009: During the financial crisis, rates were cut to zero, but the stock market plummeted, with the Nasdaq falling 55.6%.

2019-2021: Preemptive rate cuts combined with the pandemic led to a V-shaped recovery in U.S. stocks driven by excessive liquidity, with the Nasdaq rising 166.7%.

The cryptocurrency market bull run is similarly driven by liquidity:

2017: In a low-interest-rate environment, ICO frenzy drove altcoins to surge, but most returned to zero after the bubble burst.

2021: After the pandemic, the Federal Reserve's liquidity measures led to the rise of DeFi, NFTs, and new public chains, but the market saw a deep correction after rate hikes.

Summary:

The probability of a rate cut in September 2025 is high, currently leaning more towards a preemptive rate cut, with the cryptocurrency market welcoming favorable conditions such as stablecoin regulation and institutional ETFs entering the space.

$7.2 trillion in the money market may flow into risk assets, altcoin market cap expected to grow by 50%, ETH favored by funds, but caution is needed for overvaluation and macro risks.

Conclusion: This round is a structural bull market, requiring selective investment in sectors rather than relying on broad market rallies; rational investment is key. $BTC $ETH $SOL #加密市场回调 #俄乌冲突即将结束？ #Strategy增持比特币