Later this week, Bitwise will release a new report, which is quite important — (Bitwise Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Expectations), and it's the first of its kind.


This report speaks through data, estimating how much Bitcoin can rise in the next decade, its volatility, and how it relates to other assets.


In this piece, I will highlight key findings from the research, but first, I need to explain why this report is worth paying attention to.
Long-term projections on how much various assets can rise are critical for big institutions in building investment portfolios.


Every year, major companies on Wall Street and top asset management firms gather the most knowledgeable people, use a lot of data, write detailed reports, and predict how much can be earned from stocks, bonds, real estate, and private lending in the future.


These reports form the basis for many institutions' investment portfolios, providing them with a rough number to help mix various assets together to achieve desired returns and acceptable risk levels. They are likely the most critical and highly anticipated reports released by most companies each year.


Since 2017, Bitwise has been helping professional investors find opportunities in cryptocurrency. Below is the number of times large institutions have asked us how much Bitcoin can rise in the long term each year:


2017: 0 times
2018: 0 times
2019: 0 times
2020: 0 times
2021: 0 times
2022: 0 times
2023: 0 times
2024: 0 times
2025: 12 times
12 times may not seem like much, but it's actually significant: most inquiries are about large national account platforms that manage hundreds of billions or even trillions of assets. Multiply 12 by 500 billion, and you can see how much money is involved.


So what has actually changed?
Before this year, no one was asking, for two reasons: first, most major platforms hadn't approved Bitcoin ETFs; second, most professional investors regarded Bitcoin as something special, to be invested in only when opportunities arose. Now they are starting to ask how much it can rise in the long term, indicating a shift in their mindset: Bitcoin is no longer just a casual investment on the periphery of portfolios; it is starting to be considered for inclusion in the main asset allocation.


For Bitcoin to really become a legitimate asset that institutions can invest in, it won't happen overnight. There needs to be gradual progress in processes and infrastructure, and a lot of people need to keep pushing. This really started when the Bitcoin spot ETF was introduced in January 2024, and these ETFs have gradually passed on national platforms since early this year, speeding up the progress. Moreover, these platforms are starting to include Bitcoin in their designed investment portfolios, and this trend is accelerating.


But one thing is certain: all of this is happening and is gradually becoming a reality.


So what exactly are Bitwise's research findings?
I won't disclose everything; you can read the complete report yourself. But I can share a few insights.


Using a conservative approach, we estimate that over the next 10 years, Bitcoin will be the main asset with the highest growth globally, averaging an increase of 28.3% per year, with volatility gradually decreasing (though still significant). The table below clarifies our predictions, comparing them with those from companies like JPMorgan and BlackRock regarding other assets.


Predictions from 2025 to 2035: The return rates, volatility, and correlation of Bitcoin with major assets.

The return rates and volatility of Bitcoin are estimated by Bitwise. Predictions for other assets are averages from the capital market reports of JPMorgan, PIMCO, BlackRock, and Vanguard, which may be based on different indices and time periods.


The specific assets are:

Bitcoin: Bitcoin spot price.

Commodities: Deutsche Bank DBIQ Optimal Yield Diversified Commodity Index Total Return.

Gold: Gold spot price.

Hedge Funds: Bloomberg Macro Hedge Fund Index.

Private Credit: Indxx Private Credit Index.

Private Equity: S&P Listed Private Equity Total Return Index.

Real Estate: Morgan Stanley Capital International U.S. Real Estate Investment Trust Total Return Index.

U.S. Bonds: Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index.

U.S. Stocks: S&P 500 Total Return Index.

Note: Generally, a correlation between -0.5 and 0.5 is considered 'low' or not significant.

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