$ETH $BTC
Waiting for the Long signal for the D3 frame and the wave closure for August is not happening, so let's do a little Short on coffee instead 😐
This phase is still a technical rebound, don't rush to catch the bottom, folks.
🔎 On H1
The price has just rebounded from the bottom of 4064 up but was immediately pressed down by EMA9–21.
OBV is still declining → no new capital flow yet.
RSI only rebounded from 28 → 31, not creating a clear divergence → meaning the buying force is still weak.
This resembles a retest of the short-term EMA after a dump, not a trend reversal.
💡Meaning
This phase is indeed a technical rebound, like “catching breath” after a dump, but there isn't enough strength to call it a D3 level reversal.
A D3 level reversal typically has characteristics:
A long H1 spring candle or a thick-bodied green candle completely engulfing 2–3 previous red candles.
OBV clearly bounces back, RSI creates a bullish divergence.
Candle closes above EMA21 or even EMA99.
Here, there has only been a slight rebound → it’s very likely that after the rebound it will test the bottom of 4060 again, possibly clearing deeper liquidity.
👉 Scenarios for tonight and tomorrow
1. Strong dump through EMA9 then a successful test → ~50% Price drops to the 3950–4000 area, maybe even lower.
Then H1 bounces back, creating a long red D3 candle with a long lower wick, closing above EMA9 (~4030–4050). This is the scenario of “cleaning out” and holding the trend.
2. Dump immediately, closing a solid red D3 below EMA9 → ~25%
Price breaks through EMA9 without a bounce. D3 closes with a long red body, OBV falls sharply, RSI drops to 40–45.
This would be a signal of breaking the medium-term trend, possibly paving the way to EMA21 (3570).
3. Pump holding above EMA9, closing slightly green → ~15%
Not allowing a break below 4030, bouncing back to hold the 4150–4200 area. Small green candle closes, confirming EMA9 as strong support.
4. Sideways floundering around EMA9 (doji) → ~10%. Narrow fluctuation between 4050–4150 over 2 days.
