$BTC alert 🚨🚨🚨

## Simplified Explanation of Bitcoin's Trajectory Analysis

Using a computational finance framework with advanced techniques like Monte Carlo simulations and stochastic discounting, the analysis suggests Bitcoin's price movement after the April 2024 halving is likely to follow patterns seen in previous halving cycles.

### Key Points

- *Price Target*: There's a 63% probability Bitcoin's price could reach $150,000+ based on an exponential regression channel.

- *Profit Booking*: The plan is to book profits and exit in November.

- *Current Situation*: Bitcoin is consolidating around $113,000 due to adverse US PPI data, which might cause short-term volatility.

- *Breakout Delay*: Macro liquidity issues are delaying a potential breakout.

- *Risk Assessment*: Risk-adjusted metrics favor a long position in Bitcoin, with controlled drawdown risk assuming no major unexpected events like regulatory issues or a credit crisis.

### In Simple Terms

The analysis predicts Bitcoin could hit $150,000+ with a decent probability after the halving, considering historical patterns. The current price is a bit stuck due to economic data, but overall trends still suggest a potential upward move. The plan is to take profits in November.