In the 183rd Uweb live class, distinguished Uweb alumnus and data report host Afeng provided the audience with an in-depth sharing about on-chain data. This live session focused on the data report from August 11 to August 18, 2025, analyzing on-chain data of Bitcoin (BTC) and other mainstream cryptocurrencies, delving into the sources, importance, historical review, and guiding significance of on-chain data for future market conditions. Below is a comprehensive summary of the live session content, segmented into several key topics, with optimizations made to possible pronunciation or expression errors in the audio extraction script.
1. The Essence and Importance of On-Chain Data
1. What is On-Chain Data?
Afeng first educated the audience about the concept of on-chain data, pointing out that its core lies in the public transparency characteristics of the Bitcoin blockchain. Bitcoin, as a decentralized distributed ledger, records detailed information about each transaction, including the outgoing address, incoming address, and transaction amount. All this data is public, and anyone can query historical transaction records through a blockchain explorer. On-chain data analysis judges market sentiment and future market trends by observing cash flow, profit realization, and the behaviors of long-term and short-term holders.
Unlike traditional financial markets, which use an account balance settlement model (such as direct increases or decreases in bank account balances), Bitcoin uses the UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) model. UTXO represents unused 'change' from an address in the Bitcoin ledger and is essentially a certificate that records the generation time and the price at that time. Afeng emphasized that the UTXO model allows on-chain data to clearly reflect the costs and behaviors of holders, providing important basis for investment decisions.
2. Differences Between On-Chain Data and Traditional Finance
Transaction data in traditional financial markets is usually not disclosed, and the account balance model of banks or brokers cannot provide the transparency similar to on-chain data of Bitcoin. Every transaction of Bitcoin is recorded on the blockchain, publicly accessible, breaking the 'dark forest rule' of traditional finance and forming a new asset logic. Afeng pointed out that the transparency of on-chain data allows market participants to reach a consensus, thereby more effectively promoting market development.
Additionally, on-chain data analyzes market sentiment by statistics of behaviors of long-term holders (holding for more than 155 days) and short-term holders (holding for less than 155 days). For example, long-term holders tend to hold rather than sell, while short-term holders are more inclined to speculative trading. By observing the cash flow and profit realization of these groups, market trends can be inferred.
2. Historical Review and Accuracy of the Data Report
1. Review of Four Months of Reports
Afeng reviewed the performance of the data report since its launch in April 2025, pointing out that it has experienced multiple stages including the main upward wave of the bull market, accumulation, washing out, rebound, and pullback. Through historical data verification, the trend judgment of the report has been overall accurate, especially at the following key nodes:
From April 6 to May 11, 2025: The on-chain spread curve shows a rapid recovery after a small-scale loss, indicating that the market has bottomed out, suitable for swing trading, but not in a main rising wave.
From May 17 to July 7, 2025: BTC trend reached a peak, but since long-term holders did not sell, the decline was limited, missing left-side entry opportunities.
From July 14 to August 11, 2025: The weekly report clearly pointed out that the main upward wave has begun, but the upward space is limited, judged through the holding conditions of long-term and short-term holders and the unrealized profit (NUPL) indicator.
From August 11, 2025: Last week's report indicated that BTC risks are emerging, and insufficient demand led to a pullback, consistent with this week's market conditions.
2. Limitations of On-Chain Data
Although on-chain data performs excellently in judging major trends, Afeng also admits its limitations: for ultra-short-term market conditions (such as specific drops or sideways movements), on-chain data cannot provide precise predictions. This is because on-chain data more reflects long-term trends and market sentiment rather than short-term fluctuations.
3. This Week's Market Analysis and Core Indicator Interpretation
1. Market Review
This week, BTC experienced a pullback, dropping about 2.5% from its peak, while Ethereum (ETH) fell from $4,800 to $4,300, and other mainstream coins generally surged and then retreated. Afeng pointed out through Crypto Bubble data that, except for OKB which saw an abnormal price rise due to token destruction, most coins showed a trend of pullback.
2. Behavior of Long-Term and Short-Term Holders
Through the 'Holding Period Storm Chart', Afeng analyzed the behavior changes of long-term holders (more than 155 days) and short-term holders (less than 155 days). This week, the distribution trend of long-term holders has slowed down, and the demand from short-term holders has also weakened, while those holding for more than a year (365 days) have shifted from distribution to accumulation, indicating risks of short-term price adjustment.
Afeng specifically explained why a new indicator for holders with over one year of holding is added: with institutional investors entering, their profit logic differs from that of traditional cryptocurrency market makers. Institutions buy BTC in the crypto market and realize profits in the stock market, reducing distribution actions, which leads to a decrease in the sensitivity of the 155-day indicator. The indicator for holders over one year better reflects the guiding significance of institutional behavior on market conditions.
3. UTXO Energy Band and Chip Distribution
The UTXO energy band is one of the core indicators in this week's report. By statistics of BTC prices corresponding to UTXOs generated at different points in time, it reflects the distribution of chips. Afeng likens it to the process of "rock climbing": the current price range is the "cliff", the dense area of chips below (like $110,000) is the "support stone", and the sparse area above is the "resistance branch".
This week, BTC broke through the resistance range, entering a new turnover range, but the support level of $110,000 below is extremely solid, suitable for left-side entry. Afeng emphasized that the main upward wave of BTC has not yet ended, as market makers have only distributed 216,000 BTC, far from the previously accumulated 776,000, indicating there is still upward space.
4. Global Momentum Radar and Market Sentiment
"Global Momentum Radar" analyzes the investment interests of investors in the Americas, Europe, and Asia to determine the dominant market forces. Afeng pointed out that currently, sentiment among investors in the Americas and Europe is low, while sentiment among Asian investors is high, forming a risk signal of 'Asian takeover'. If sentiment in the Americas warms up, BTC is likely to rebound and reach historical highs.
5. On-Chain Spread Curve and Profit Realization
The on-chain spread curve reflects the profit situation during UTXO transfers. This week, profit realization has shown an upward trend, indicating that market makers are still distributing, but have not yet reached historical peak levels (large-scale profit realization). Short-term holders' profit confidence is insufficient, losses are increasing, and the proportion of speculative funds is high, requiring caution against further pullback risks.
6. Extreme Pricing Deviations and Liquidity Pulses
The newly added 'Extreme Pricing Deviation' indicator assesses overbought and oversold intervals through the average cost of short-term holders (blue line) and standard deviations (upper and lower bands). The current BTC price is in a healthy range, not touching the upper band (overbought) or lower band (oversold), but if it falls below the cost line (zero value), it may trigger a significant pullback.
The 'Liquidity Pulse Chart' shows a rebound in stablecoin issuance and exchange inflow, reflecting a moderate improvement in market demand for BTC, but the spot trading volume remains tepid, indicating that peak signals have not yet appeared.
4. Off-Chain Data and Macro Expectations
1. Funding Rate Heatmap
The funding rate heatmap reflects the heat of leveraged trading. Currently, the funding rates for BTC and Ethereum are relatively low, with no signs of an overheated 'crowd', indicating that the main upward wave still has room.
2. Bitcoin Spot ETF
This week, the net inflow to ETFs was $550 million, an improvement from over $100 million last week, indicating a resurgence of interest from U.S. investors. ETFs have become the primary way for U.S. investors to buy BTC due to low fees and tax advantages, and their inflow is an important indicator of demand.
3. Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations
The market's expectation probability of a rate cut in September reached 77%, which has a positive impact on BTC, U.S. stocks, and even global stock markets. The expectation of a rate cut will enhance short-term demand and support BTC market conditions.
5. Q&A Session and Common Questions
During the Q&A session, Afeng responded to several key questions from the audience:
Misunderstanding of the On-Chain Spread Curve: The audience mistakenly believed that all holders should be 100% profitable at historical highs. Afeng clarified that this curve reflects the average profit level, not the number of profitable individuals. At historical peaks, the average profit was about 70%-75%.
Whether exchange data is included in on-chain statistics: Exchanges' BTC reserves are on-chain, but user account balances are not directly recorded as on-chain transfers; only when withdrawing coins do UTXOs get generated.
Differences between American and Asian investors: American investors dominate BTC pricing power, while Asian investors often play the role of 'taking over', and sentiment differences are an important basis for judging trends.
Ethereum Price Prediction: Due to Ethereum adopting an account model rather than a UTXO model, analyzing on-chain data is more challenging, making it difficult to accurately predict its peak.
6. Summary and Outlook
Afeng summarized that BTC is currently in the mid-term of a major upward trend, with long-term holders’ distribution not yet finished, and there are still a large number of chips in the hands of market makers. The support level ($110,000) is solid, and there is a high possibility of an increase after a short-term pullback. If investor sentiment in the Americas warms up, BTC is likely to make new highs, expected to peak around $150,000 (NUPL reaches 75%). However, caution is advised regarding risks from Asian buyers and further pullbacks due to short-term holders' lack of confidence.
Afeng emphasized that the data report aims to provide academic discussion and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should combine on-chain data, macro policies, and market sentiment to build an independent judgment system.
