ETH is currently fluctuating between 4200-4300, which does not mean it cannot go lower. This is the dealer playing with your mindset. The death cross on the 12-hour MACD still hangs in the air; it is the final stop for the daily level pullback. If we compare the weekly chart to a CEO, the daily is the manager, and the 12-hour level is the head of the marketing department. If it reaches the zero axis and has a strong rebound, this daily pullback is basically over.

Therefore, from Thursday to Friday, there is a high probability of a certain movement: ETH may accelerate its drop to this yellow line, which is the 30-day moving average (3974), and then quickly rebound back above 4300. Below 4072, you can gradually enter light positions. Only after a rapid drop can a strong rebound occur.

Next, we should watch the resistance strength of the bulls at the 4000 mark. If it can break through 4444 in one go, we turn bullish. If the rebound is below 4380, we short.

Of course, if it directly rebounds back above 4444 tonight or tomorrow, everyone will be happy. But this possibility is very small. The information front will be on Thursday and Friday. The US stock market has fallen for several days, theoretically, Powell's speech on Friday should ease the market a bit.

Many people are directly looking at a drop to 3000 or 2000, which is too subjective. Just listen to it. It has little reference value for the short term.