零下二度
喜欢写作，编程，旅行的币圈人。本轮17000抄底btc，sol均价43。2023.10-2024.3连续16周币本位做多sol赚取7k枚一战成名。推特：@jackli727
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Firm belief in Bitcoin’s bull market cycle!
In February 2021, I randomly found a piece of paper in a hotel on a business trip and simply drew the time nodes and multiple difference analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycle. That day, I studied the previous two bear and bull cycles of Bitcoin. It was already in a bull market at that time, so I made an inference on the possible time point of the highest point of the bull market that year. At that time, I concluded that we were in the upward range of the third bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin at this time, and the highest point would definitely occur in a certain period of time. At that time, I had already locked the time of Bitcoin's highest point in November 2021 (of course its highest point turned out to be 69,000, and I overestimated it by more than 20,000 US dollars). This is also the reason why I gradually cleared out the Bitcoin position from mid-November to early December 2021 when it was around 60,000, leaving only 10% of the position that I have held until now. Regarding the detailed inference at the beginning of 2021 when predicting the highest point of the bull market at that time, I published it that month. The following is a screenshot of the analysis that year. (Many people in last year’s big bear market didn’t realize until they looked back that November 2021 was the month when the last bull market ended?) In the afternoon, I reviewed the first three bear-bull cycles of Bitcoin from 2011 to 2021, and the first three Bitcoin declines. The correlation between half time and the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. The start and end time of the next bull market cycle has basically been determined again. As the saying goes, experience is the best teacher, sometimes better than technology. Please firmly believe that Bitcoin’s fourth bull market cycle will officially start in May next year, and will still end in November-December 2025. Under special circumstances, it will be postponed to January of the following year. It is undeniable that all bull markets since the birth of Bitcoin have ended almost from the end of one year to January of the following year. When I reviewed the characteristics of the first three Bitcoin bull cycles, I also looked at the operating characteristics of the first three halving cycles of Litecoin. Combined with the characteristics of this month, I also affirmed a conclusion: Litecoin’s halving time this year is The trend is completely in line with its historical cycle operation rules (the specific characteristics were posted on the afternoon of July 31). Therefore, we don’t need to be too anxious about the current volatile market, don’t be depressed, and get through the next half of the year, and we can welcome the highlight moment again in the first half of next year! 💪Believe in the big cycle operation rules of Bitcoin, this is your true belief in it!
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On Monday, MSTR surged 4%. What reason does the cryptocurrency market have not to rise? Stop pretending, let it rise, don't induce shorts.
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In the past two days, ETH has been experiencing evenly spaced pullbacks, with each day's rebound and retracement having similar amplitudes. This is not very friendly for those who are re-entering the market daily, as entering slightly early could result in a brief loss. The 4-8 hour chart shows a M-top structure, but the daily level remains strong. In the past two days, there has been a rebound after finding support around the 12-hour EMA 7: 4160. The support here is quite strong. Between 4330 and 4100, 4160 is the only strong support, while 4220 is weak support. Therefore, until there is a breakthrough above 4400, the ideal entry point for low buys is around 4160. If it falls below this level, the entry point would be around 4068. Currently, there is not much risk of a significant pullback, and for short positions, it is best not to chase below 4280, as a rebound could easily lead to losses.
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Regarding SOL, reviewing it has greatly helped us improve short to medium-term trading. My review is different from others; it's a lot of rambling, and you might not understand or find it practical. I only talk about the most core aspects: how the points are derived and the basis and logical thinking behind the judgments.
On August 1st, when SOL retraced and fell below 170, I had basically confirmed that SOL would stop falling around 155-157; this is the bottom point. I am definitely one of the first people on the internet to judge that this is the bottom point. I saw many people started to judge after the stop loss on August 3rd, which was too late. Because this is the golden ratio point of the large wave segment from 125-206, if it falls further, it will turn into a bearish trend.
Then, starting from 155 as the rising point, how much will it rebound? I also mentioned it in the muted group immediately (as shown in Figure 3), with rebounds successively looking at 175, 181, and 186. How are these three points derived? They are calculated as follows: the lowest point 155.5 + (206 - 155.5) * 0.382/0.50/0.618.
186.5 happened to be the highest point of last week and also the 0.618 position retraced since the rebound from 155.5. At that time, after confirming 155.5 as the bottom point, I quickly mentioned that after a 50-point retracement, recovering 30 points is reasonable. Looking back now, 155.5 + 30 = 185.5. It has precisely recovered 30 points. So when it reached around 186, all three Fibonacci rebound points had been reached.
Then, I also mentioned yesterday that in the short term, confirming a stable 177 after a pullback below 180 from 186, followed by an attack towards 200. This is what is about to happen this week.
In the short term, once 186.50 breaks, you can also chase up and add to your position; the portion of the increase can be unloaded around 189-191. This is called rolling the position. Why can you add to your position after breaking through 186.5? Because breaking through the 0.618 level strengthens the bulls. This is similar to what I said last night, that if ETH breaks 4266 (the daytime drop recovered to the 0.618 level), you can chase and add to your position at the current price.
On August 1st, when SOL retraced and fell below 170, I had basically confirmed that SOL would stop falling around 155-157; this is the bottom point. I am definitely one of the first people on the internet to judge that this is the bottom point. I saw many people started to judge after the stop loss on August 3rd, which was too late. Because this is the golden ratio point of the large wave segment from 125-206, if it falls further, it will turn into a bearish trend.
Then, starting from 155 as the rising point, how much will it rebound? I also mentioned it in the muted group immediately (as shown in Figure 3), with rebounds successively looking at 175, 181, and 186. How are these three points derived? They are calculated as follows: the lowest point 155.5 + (206 - 155.5) * 0.382/0.50/0.618.
186.5 happened to be the highest point of last week and also the 0.618 position retraced since the rebound from 155.5. At that time, after confirming 155.5 as the bottom point, I quickly mentioned that after a 50-point retracement, recovering 30 points is reasonable. Looking back now, 155.5 + 30 = 185.5. It has precisely recovered 30 points. So when it reached around 186, all three Fibonacci rebound points had been reached.
Then, I also mentioned yesterday that in the short term, confirming a stable 177 after a pullback below 180 from 186, followed by an attack towards 200. This is what is about to happen this week.
In the short term, once 186.50 breaks, you can also chase up and add to your position; the portion of the increase can be unloaded around 189-191. This is called rolling the position. Why can you add to your position after breaking through 186.5? Because breaking through the 0.618 level strengthens the bulls. This is similar to what I said last night, that if ETH breaks 4266 (the daytime drop recovered to the 0.618 level), you can chase and add to your position at the current price.
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Next, there are two scenarios for BTC:
1. Strongly break through 123300, surge to around 127700-128000 in one go, then pull back to 124000, and then step by step attack each resistance point to re-establish.
2. Strongly break through 123300, first reach 125000. Pull back once to 122800-122400, confirm stability before sequentially attacking resistance points such as 126850, 127850, 128800, advancing cautiously, and then if it can't rise above 128800, it needs to retrace to test the support at 122000.
So regardless of which scenario occurs, after breaking the previous high, we will first see 125000-128800. Therefore, for your bullish position, you can directly set take profit at these two points: 125000 and 127500, and you might be pleasantly surprised!
As for the short positions, they should be adjusted to 125000, 128800, and above.
1. Strongly break through 123300, surge to around 127700-128000 in one go, then pull back to 124000, and then step by step attack each resistance point to re-establish.
2. Strongly break through 123300, first reach 125000. Pull back once to 122800-122400, confirm stability before sequentially attacking resistance points such as 126850, 127850, 128800, advancing cautiously, and then if it can't rise above 128800, it needs to retrace to test the support at 122000.
So regardless of which scenario occurs, after breaking the previous high, we will first see 125000-128800. Therefore, for your bullish position, you can directly set take profit at these two points: 125000 and 127500, and you might be pleasantly surprised!
As for the short positions, they should be adjusted to 125000, 128800, and above.
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Yesterday during the day, I got vaccinated at x, and today it will break 120,000. It has currently surpassed 121,200, confirming a second attempt to break the previous high of 123,300. If it breaks 123,300 this week, the new high will be directly seen around 127,700-132,000.
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Yesterday during the day, I said that those heavily shorting ETH in the square would quickly be in trouble. Right? The 4-hour death cross during the day yesterday was indeed a bit scary, but many people overlooked one point: the BTC market is strengthening. With the market strengthening, how could ETH drop unilaterally? Moreover, yesterday was Sunday, and it is quite normal for some major players in ETH to come in and out, which does not affect the main direction.
Yesterday, I accurately predicted that the ETH 4-hour death cross would be resolved and would not lead to a deep drop. Do you understand the logic that breaking 4266 can lead to chasing the rise? 4266 is the golden ratio point of yesterday's fluctuation; breaking here means the bulls will turn strong, and it can recover all the small bearish candles from yesterday.
This morning, it quickly returned to 4330 and will continue to reach new highs, right?
Yesterday, I accurately predicted that the ETH 4-hour death cross would be resolved and would not lead to a deep drop. Do you understand the logic that breaking 4266 can lead to chasing the rise? 4266 is the golden ratio point of yesterday's fluctuation; breaking here means the bulls will turn strong, and it can recover all the small bearish candles from yesterday.
This morning, it quickly returned to 4330 and will continue to reach new highs, right?
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Updated at 4:43, adding position for BTC at 118055, and timing the entry at 118010 at 5:00.
Do you understand why we entered a long position on SOL yesterday afternoon at 180.65, and why we added at 178.25-176.85? This design is to prevent missing out. Yesterday afternoon, it retraced once to 177.5, and last night it retraced once to 178.5, initially confirming that 177 is stable, with the levels all within the range for entry and adding positions. If 177 holds, we are looking to break the 200 mark.
Do you understand why we entered a long position on SOL yesterday afternoon at 180.65, and why we added at 178.25-176.85? This design is to prevent missing out. Yesterday afternoon, it retraced once to 177.5, and last night it retraced once to 178.5, initially confirming that 177 is stable, with the levels all within the range for entry and adding positions. If 177 holds, we are looking to break the 200 mark.
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Technical bear market, which refers to the adjustment phase at the weekly level, from the end of 2022 (2022.3-2022.10 belongs to the cyclical bear market) to now, BTC has gone through a total of 4 phases. The lows of these 4 phases all fall within the range for accumulating spot positions. During the remaining time, buying spot positions generally falls into the mid-to-high price buying range, yielding little profit, and one would need to time the exit near the peak, making large investments unnecessary.
For example, since April 7, the rally after BTC's fourth unit adjustment cycle has yet to complete. It is now inappropriate to buy spot positions because we are currently at a high level, and no one can clearly say where the peak will be, so we can only test by time points. Therefore, the upward space after the new high is considered a blind spot. If you exited early, there is no need to chase the highs frequently.
Taking ETH as an example, from the end of 2022 to now, there have been a total of 3 occurrences of the technical bear market. The bull-bear dividing point for ETH is 2800. If it falls below this, we directly look at around 2100, and if it breaks 2000, we see 1600-1440. Thus, 2800 is the starting point for ETH entering the bear market. Therefore, during non-bear market phases, buying ETH spot positions can only be done at most around 3008, 2777-2666, where it is close to the strong support at 2800, buying 0.5 of the position to cushion. The true bottoming price range for spot buying is around 2112-1400. As for ETH spot above 3000, at least I have no interest in entering the market.
Playing with spot trading is simple. In every cycle of the bull and bear markets, I always gain significantly in the first half, as the spot accumulation is at the cyclical bear market bottom. During the period when BTC rises 30,000 to 50,000 points, because I quickly established long positions in terms of the currency, I was able to rise quickly. After that, it was just casual trading.
For example, since April 7, the rally after BTC's fourth unit adjustment cycle has yet to complete. It is now inappropriate to buy spot positions because we are currently at a high level, and no one can clearly say where the peak will be, so we can only test by time points. Therefore, the upward space after the new high is considered a blind spot. If you exited early, there is no need to chase the highs frequently.
Taking ETH as an example, from the end of 2022 to now, there have been a total of 3 occurrences of the technical bear market. The bull-bear dividing point for ETH is 2800. If it falls below this, we directly look at around 2100, and if it breaks 2000, we see 1600-1440. Thus, 2800 is the starting point for ETH entering the bear market. Therefore, during non-bear market phases, buying ETH spot positions can only be done at most around 3008, 2777-2666, where it is close to the strong support at 2800, buying 0.5 of the position to cushion. The true bottoming price range for spot buying is around 2112-1400. As for ETH spot above 3000, at least I have no interest in entering the market.
Playing with spot trading is simple. In every cycle of the bull and bear markets, I always gain significantly in the first half, as the spot accumulation is at the cyclical bear market bottom. During the period when BTC rises 30,000 to 50,000 points, because I quickly established long positions in terms of the currency, I was able to rise quickly. After that, it was just casual trading.
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Some short-term and medium-term selling points for spot trading and suitable buying points during non-bear market phases (below the reference buying prices, part of a technical bear market or cyclical bear market, to be discussed in the future):
eth short-term peak: 4880 (unknown above). Suitable buying price reference: 3008, 2770-2666.
sol: short-term peak: 226-229. Suitable buying price reference: 155.65, 141.25.
xrp: short-term peak 3.45-3.65. Suitable buying price reference: 2.85, 2.52
sui: short-term peak 4.40-4.63. Suitable buying price reference: 3.35-3.30
doge: short-term peak 0.2595-0.2850, medium-term peak 0.3450. Suitable buying price reference: 0.1885-0.1825.
btc has no suitable prices for retail investors to buy spot in the second half of this year. We'll have to wait until next year to see. For example, 96000, 77600. The cost remains relatively high; buying at 77600 with only 0.5 of a position would be remarkable. If next year follows a cyclical bear market, then there will be the most suitable bottom points to consider. Since we won't reach those levels this year, there's no need for me to announce it now.
eth short-term peak: 4880 (unknown above). Suitable buying price reference: 3008, 2770-2666.
sol: short-term peak: 226-229. Suitable buying price reference: 155.65, 141.25.
xrp: short-term peak 3.45-3.65. Suitable buying price reference: 2.85, 2.52
sui: short-term peak 4.40-4.63. Suitable buying price reference: 3.35-3.30
doge: short-term peak 0.2595-0.2850, medium-term peak 0.3450. Suitable buying price reference: 0.1885-0.1825.
btc has no suitable prices for retail investors to buy spot in the second half of this year. We'll have to wait until next year to see. For example, 96000, 77600. The cost remains relatively high; buying at 77600 with only 0.5 of a position would be remarkable. If next year follows a cyclical bear market, then there will be the most suitable bottom points to consider. Since we won't reach those levels this year, there's no need for me to announce it now.
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This week, the points where SOL retraced to enter long positions are all on this yellow line. Occasionally, small spikes that exceed this can be manually added to the position. There were 3 short opportunities (false breakdowns), but the profits are small and require quick entries and exits, so there's no need to pursue these. If it stabilizes above 177 in the short term, the 200 level will open up. The short-term defense has moved up to 174. After SOL re-establishes above 200 this month, it will aim for 208-227 (August peak).
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Reducing positions for defense is a primary defensive strategy focused on low long positions, creating a bullish structural trend. It's not necessary to always set stop-loss orders; sometimes a small dip quickly recovers, making the stop-loss ineffective.
In an upward trend, the normal approach for short-term position reduction defense is to set it based on the intraday high - [(intraday high - intraday starting point) * 0.618]. Generally, retracements of 0.50-0.618 are normal entry points for long positions. In rare cases, prices may drop to the next support level, so a 25-50% position reduction for defense is sufficient, with the reduced portion being replenished at the nearest support point below. The reason for only needing to reduce positions for defense is that prices will still rise in the short term, rather than experiencing a significant correction or waiting several days to rise again. In this case, reducing positions for defense minimizes losses in the short term. For users with small capital positions, there aren’t many options; as long as they are close to forced liquidation, stop-loss orders must be set—there is no choice in this matter. For small capital contracts, it’s best to maintain a strategic outlook; as quick entry and exit will continuously raise the average cost and keep you close to the market price. Frequent trading cannot withstand normal volatility and can lead to substantial losses. If, at the end, you do not have an immediate stop-loss, you risk losing your positions. Therefore, for small capital positions during strong markets, like going long on ETH in recent days, it’s advisable to aim for several hundred points, taking profits in batches while appropriately averaging down, keeping the average cost at least 120 points below the market price. This way, short-term risks are significantly reduced, rather than relying on the hope that your perceived liquidation price won’t be breached, which is merely a self-deception.
In an upward trend, the normal approach for short-term position reduction defense is to set it based on the intraday high - [(intraday high - intraday starting point) * 0.618]. Generally, retracements of 0.50-0.618 are normal entry points for long positions. In rare cases, prices may drop to the next support level, so a 25-50% position reduction for defense is sufficient, with the reduced portion being replenished at the nearest support point below. The reason for only needing to reduce positions for defense is that prices will still rise in the short term, rather than experiencing a significant correction or waiting several days to rise again. In this case, reducing positions for defense minimizes losses in the short term. For users with small capital positions, there aren’t many options; as long as they are close to forced liquidation, stop-loss orders must be set—there is no choice in this matter. For small capital contracts, it’s best to maintain a strategic outlook; as quick entry and exit will continuously raise the average cost and keep you close to the market price. Frequent trading cannot withstand normal volatility and can lead to substantial losses. If, at the end, you do not have an immediate stop-loss, you risk losing your positions. Therefore, for small capital positions during strong markets, like going long on ETH in recent days, it’s advisable to aim for several hundred points, taking profits in batches while appropriately averaging down, keeping the average cost at least 120 points below the market price. This way, short-term risks are significantly reduced, rather than relying on the hope that your perceived liquidation price won’t be breached, which is merely a self-deception.
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Just a portion of ETH funds has rotated into BTC. Pay attention to reducing positions around 4188 for ETH (positions with an average cost above 4200). For SOL, you can directly go long; it touched 179 in the morning, with a 1-hour golden cross and daily golden cross resonance. If it breaks above 186.5, first look at 189.5-191.5.
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The biggest pressure for Sol this week is 186. 175 and 181 have already been conquered. Oh, today is the last day of this week. You know...
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ETH longs below 3930 can continue to hold. There is no strong resistance between 4100-4400; if it weren't the weekend, it would basically reach above 4400 in 24 hours. This morning at 6 AM, it touched 4325, and by 6:30 it had already retraced to 4238. It will only retrace once here, so the suitable positions for adding to the position today between 4240-4420 are already gone. The late bird gets no worms; at this point, one can only add to the position at the current price or chase the longs. There is weak resistance around 4330; breaking through here means looking at 4372-4440.
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In the past few days, those who listened to my advice made a killing on long positions. Going against the trend and taking the opposite approach, what a sigh! Last night I said that ETH has no strong resistance between 4100-4400, it’s smooth sailing. Once it breaks 4100, you can first aim for a gain of 300 points! When it's time to feast, don’t be hesitant at all.
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From the perspective of higher-level indicators on daily and weekly charts, ETH is expected to continue rising and reach new highs next week. The 3-day MACD is accelerating upward, and the weekly MACD's upward momentum is also strengthening. The monthly level still shows a long-legged bullish candle, which is a typical bullish market trend.
Looking back at the end of July, the prediction that August would continue to rise was undoubtedly correct, with the main focus on long positions for two weeks in between. However, daily short-term defense should not be overlooked. I provide this almost every day, and it must be strictly enforced. The defensive positions, whether for stop-loss or reducing positions, are designed to avoid missing out while maintaining the potential for minimal losses. Therefore, to mitigate potential risks, the longer the bulls go up, the more they need to set stop-loss and take-profit levels, so they can confidently chase. After all, at prices above 4000, there are no retail investors buying ETH spot; the competition is undoubtedly in short to mid-term contracts.
Looking back at the end of July, the prediction that August would continue to rise was undoubtedly correct, with the main focus on long positions for two weeks in between. However, daily short-term defense should not be overlooked. I provide this almost every day, and it must be strictly enforced. The defensive positions, whether for stop-loss or reducing positions, are designed to avoid missing out while maintaining the potential for minimal losses. Therefore, to mitigate potential risks, the longer the bulls go up, the more they need to set stop-loss and take-profit levels, so they can confidently chase. After all, at prices above 4000, there are no retail investors buying ETH spot; the competition is undoubtedly in short to mid-term contracts.
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The daily pullback supplement or re-entry points given by Sol are generally near the lowest point. The supplement of 176.85 provided last night had a minimum pullback to 176.51 at exactly 7:30 in the morning. Why wouldn't I enter at 176.50? If I set a limit at 176.50, I would miss the lowest entry point due to a slight error of 0.01. Why can't I set the pullback at 176.25 or 175.50? It is very clear that it will not pull back below 175. The reason has been explained many times before: although 179 is close to the psychological barrier of 180, it is not a pressure point; there will only be a symbolic small pullback to confirm the stability at 175. Therefore, it will not pull back to 175, and the entry must be 1-2 points higher.
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Last night in the group, I mentioned that ETH would take profit at 4066 after breaking through. A fellow trader asked how I arrived at 4066. To be honest, it was a guess. Last month, it paused around 3068, so I determined that it would pause around 4066. I didn't say 4068; it was purely coincidental that I said 4066 because it's just a small point. Therefore, I refer to it as a 'small take-profit point.' It's not worth taking full profits on your long position below the cost of 3880. You should maintain an average cost below 3880 and wait until it breaks through 4200, at which point you can increase your position and start taking profits after pushing up another 200 points. At this point, the profits are stacked, and the average cost still holds an advantage; even a 150-point pullback won't turn into a floating loss, making the position seem quite secure. Set a breakeven stop loss, and how much you can gain depends on how things develop in the next two weeks. Why can you chase after the 4066 breakout? Because after the breakout, it surged to 4112, which is the first resistance level above 4000. Once it stabilizes here, there’s no strong resistance until 4440, making for a smooth 300-point profit. Of course, if it can't hold near 4112, it may drop back to the 4k level. So if you entered a long position above 4000, you must set a stop loss at 4000. Only when the price exceeds 4200 does it become safer; after realizing profits, set a breakeven stop loss immediately. After that, it's just a matter of how much you can harvest.
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