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喜欢写作，编程，旅行的币圈人。
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Firm belief in Bitcoin’s bull market cycle!
In February 2021, I randomly found a piece of paper in a hotel on a business trip and simply drew the time nodes and multiple difference analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycle. That day, I studied the previous two bear and bull cycles of Bitcoin. It was already in a bull market at that time, so I made an inference on the possible time point of the highest point of the bull market that year. At that time, I concluded that we were in the upward range of the third bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin at this time, and the highest point would definitely occur in a certain period of time. At that time, I had already locked the time of Bitcoin's highest point in November 2021 (of course its highest point turned out to be 69,000, and I overestimated it by more than 20,000 US dollars). This is also the reason why I gradually cleared out the Bitcoin position from mid-November to early December 2021 when it was around 60,000, leaving only 10% of the position that I have held until now. Regarding the detailed inference at the beginning of 2021 when predicting the highest point of the bull market at that time, I published it that month. The following is a screenshot of the analysis that year. (Many people in last year’s big bear market didn’t realize until they looked back that November 2021 was the month when the last bull market ended?) In the afternoon, I reviewed the first three bear-bull cycles of Bitcoin from 2011 to 2021, and the first three Bitcoin declines. The correlation between half time and the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. The start and end time of the next bull market cycle has basically been determined again. As the saying goes, experience is the best teacher, sometimes better than technology. Please firmly believe that Bitcoin’s fourth bull market cycle will officially start in May next year, and will still end in November-December 2025. Under special circumstances, it will be postponed to January of the following year. It is undeniable that all bull markets since the birth of Bitcoin have ended almost from the end of one year to January of the following year. When I reviewed the characteristics of the first three Bitcoin bull cycles, I also looked at the operating characteristics of the first three halving cycles of Litecoin. Combined with the characteristics of this month, I also affirmed a conclusion: Litecoin’s halving time this year is The trend is completely in line with its historical cycle operation rules (the specific characteristics were posted on the afternoon of July 31). Therefore, we don’t need to be too anxious about the current volatile market, don’t be depressed, and get through the next half of the year, and we can welcome the highlight moment again in the first half of next year! 💪Believe in the big cycle operation rules of Bitcoin, this is your true belief in it!
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To predict the trend of BTC, we need to take SOL as a reference. This is because SOL always pulls back a step ahead of BTC. This time, after reaching the high point of 187, it also started to pull back first, dropping to 152.5, which is the 0.382 position. It paused here for a few days, not breaking below 150, creating a false impression for retail investors to buy the dip. Here, it is actually waiting for BTC to break below 103000. Last night it dropped to 141.5, just right for a pullback to the 0.50 position. It could further pull back about 11 points, around 130.5, which is the 0.618 position, the buying point.
From a purely positional perspective, SOL can be bought near 130. BTC is unlikely to drop below 95000, as 95000 is the 0.618 pullback position. Spot orders can be placed at will; if they don't get filled, it's no big deal. I believe not many people will buy BTC spot above 98,000. BTC is slightly stronger in the market. If SOL pulls back to 0.618, BTC will basically pull back to around 0.50 at 98200. The 0.382 position is 101400, which was broken last night, but historically it tends to strongly rebound. If it doesn't resist 100000, it will quickly lose ground. So, we shouldn't chase short positions; at least wait for a rebound above 102400 before going short. Therefore, the next pullback to around 0.50 at 98200 can temporarily serve as a buying point for contracts.
From a purely positional perspective, SOL can be bought near 130. BTC is unlikely to drop below 95000, as 95000 is the 0.618 pullback position. Spot orders can be placed at will; if they don't get filled, it's no big deal. I believe not many people will buy BTC spot above 98,000. BTC is slightly stronger in the market. If SOL pulls back to 0.618, BTC will basically pull back to around 0.50 at 98200. The 0.382 position is 101400, which was broken last night, but historically it tends to strongly rebound. If it doesn't resist 100000, it will quickly lose ground. So, we shouldn't chase short positions; at least wait for a rebound above 102400 before going short. Therefore, the next pullback to around 0.50 at 98200 can temporarily serve as a buying point for contracts.
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June Spot Bottom Buying Reference:
btc: 95000/94666, 0.5 position; 91666, add 0.5 position.
eth: 2085, 0.5 position; 1926, add 0.5 position.
sol: 141.5, 0.5 position; 130.5, add 0.5 position.
sui: 2.45, 0.5 position; 2.15, add 0.5 position.
fet: 0.65, 0.5 position; 0.48, add 0.5 position.
xrp: 1.85-1.76, 0.5 position,
btc: 95000/94666, 0.5 position; 91666, add 0.5 position.
eth: 2085, 0.5 position; 1926, add 0.5 position.
sol: 141.5, 0.5 position; 130.5, add 0.5 position.
sui: 2.45, 0.5 position; 2.15, add 0.5 position.
fet: 0.65, 0.5 position; 0.48, add 0.5 position.
xrp: 1.85-1.76, 0.5 position,
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The drop in the second half of the night was too much. Today, we need to fix the smaller indicators. The non-farm payrolls in the evening may bring some good news, facilitating a rebound to zero on the 1-day MACD.
Short-term resistance area: 102400-103750. If it rebounds to this level, a short position can be taken. If it cannot recover above this range, then a drop to 100,000 can be expected.
Short-term resistance area: 102400-103750. If it rebounds to this level, a short position can be taken. If it cannot recover above this range, then a drop to 100,000 can be expected.
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The last couple of days have been busy around 3-4 AM, and last night it started around 3:30.
At 3:30 BTC pulled back from 104700 to 103985 before starting to rise. Today, it will likely retest around 105000-104700.
At 3:30 SOL pulled back from 155 to 151.75 before starting to rise. This morning it rebounded to 162 and will retest 158. As mentioned yesterday, it needs to hold above 157 before it can rebound to 164-167.
This week's important information mostly comes in the late night. If you are resting, try not to trade, or manage your positions to the safest range before sleeping. It can drop and then rise halfway, or rise and then drop, especially in the early hours of Thursday and Friday, so be cautious of a downward spike.
At 3:30 BTC pulled back from 104700 to 103985 before starting to rise. Today, it will likely retest around 105000-104700.
At 3:30 SOL pulled back from 155 to 151.75 before starting to rise. This morning it rebounded to 162 and will retest 158. As mentioned yesterday, it needs to hold above 157 before it can rebound to 164-167.
This week's important information mostly comes in the late night. If you are resting, try not to trade, or manage your positions to the safest range before sleeping. It can drop and then rise halfway, or rise and then drop, especially in the early hours of Thursday and Friday, so be cautious of a downward spike.
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The most important level for BTC this week is 102000. The first time it drops nearby and encounters support, it will rebound. After the rebound, if it drops again and fails to recover above, the weekly chart will form a head and shoulders pattern, and the short-term trend will turn bearish, with support moving down to the 95000 level. If it can adjust to this level this month, long positions can be held for the medium to long term.
If looking purely at spot trading, 95000 is suitable for entering 10% of the position, corresponding to SOL's 130 and ETH's 2086.
If looking purely at spot trading, 95000 is suitable for entering 10% of the position, corresponding to SOL's 130 and ETH's 2086.
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This week's important information is plentiful, with many short-term indicators, pay attention to positions:
Tuesday
1:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks;
Wednesday
0:45: Federal Reserve officials Goolsbee and Logan speak;
20:15: US May ADP employment data;
Thursday:
2:00: Federal Reserve economic beige book;
20:30: Weekly unemployment claims data;
Friday:
20:30: US May non-farm payroll.
Tuesday
1:00: Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks;
Wednesday
0:45: Federal Reserve officials Goolsbee and Logan speak;
20:15: US May ADP employment data;
Thursday:
2:00: Federal Reserve economic beige book;
20:30: Weekly unemployment claims data;
Friday:
20:30: US May non-farm payroll.
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The sol rebounded twice in the morning to the 157.5-159 area, which is the short-term long take-profit point and the short-term short entry point. In the latter half of the night, it pulled back to around 153.85 and rebounded, so today's intraday short can exit early when it pulls back to 155.5-154.85. 154-152 is the low long entry point, and a drop below 149 means stop loss.
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The 1-day MACD is about to return to the zero axis, and generally, it will bounce back when it reaches zero. On the surface, it seems that 150 may not hold, but as long as BTC does not drop below 103000, 150 will not be lost, so we definitely cannot chase here at a low. The maximum short-term pressure is 162, and yesterday we suggested entering a short position between 157.5-159.25; it's safe to short here. Last night, the highest rebound reached 157.85, and if it goes up again, we can continue to add. If 150 breaks, we'll need to go long around 146.25. A first break will inevitably lead to a strong recovery.
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Review of Yesterday's Trading Strategy:
Last night's rebound was a 2-hour level pullback. BTC's drop from the night before to yesterday morning retraced between 0.50-0.618, with the 0.50 level at 104650 and the 0.618 level at 105030. There was basically no rebound yesterday morning, not even touching 103900, while the 0.382 retracement level was at 104250. Thus, it was judged that the rebound would not reach the 0.618 level of 105030, so a low long position was given for profit taking at 104250 in the morning, and a short position was taken between 104250-104600.
In fact, last night’s high only rebounded to 104859, which is between 0.50-0.618. So can this short position be executed for the short term? Of course! However, since it was the weekend and there was no market activity to reference, it would only fluctuate between yesterday's lowest point and last night's highest rebound point, resulting in relatively smaller profits. This is unlike the profit space of over 2000 points for the BTC short from Thursday to Friday, and 140 points for ETH. But adding in the low long position from yesterday morning (the day before), there was one long and one short position yesterday, and the short position provided an opportunity for profit taking this morning, allowing for another low buy to go long at 104850-105000 for profit.
Similarly, the low long for ETH given yesterday morning was taken for profit at 2538, and then a short position was entered between 2538-2560. Last night, ETH's highest rebound reached 2550, and this morning it pulled back to 2490, also yielding several points in profit. So why can't we execute this rebound short? It can definitely be done!
Last night's rebound was a 2-hour level pullback. BTC's drop from the night before to yesterday morning retraced between 0.50-0.618, with the 0.50 level at 104650 and the 0.618 level at 105030. There was basically no rebound yesterday morning, not even touching 103900, while the 0.382 retracement level was at 104250. Thus, it was judged that the rebound would not reach the 0.618 level of 105030, so a low long position was given for profit taking at 104250 in the morning, and a short position was taken between 104250-104600.
In fact, last night’s high only rebounded to 104859, which is between 0.50-0.618. So can this short position be executed for the short term? Of course! However, since it was the weekend and there was no market activity to reference, it would only fluctuate between yesterday's lowest point and last night's highest rebound point, resulting in relatively smaller profits. This is unlike the profit space of over 2000 points for the BTC short from Thursday to Friday, and 140 points for ETH. But adding in the low long position from yesterday morning (the day before), there was one long and one short position yesterday, and the short position provided an opportunity for profit taking this morning, allowing for another low buy to go long at 104850-105000 for profit.
Similarly, the low long for ETH given yesterday morning was taken for profit at 2538, and then a short position was entered between 2538-2560. Last night, ETH's highest rebound reached 2550, and this morning it pulled back to 2490, also yielding several points in profit. So why can't we execute this rebound short? It can definitely be done!
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After 7 weeks of accumulation, many people have developed a multi-headed mindset. I just want to say, when it's time to short, you must short, and not keep pushing in one direction for too long. Since this is an hourly level 'pullback', how high can it go? The high point of the pullback is for shorting, not like the previous period when the MACD was rising step by step above the zero axis, advancing cautiously. If you only take one direction (low long), then you need to maintain enough patience and a very cautious position to buy low during the pullback. If the key support is broken and you do not defend, then you will have to be sold.
June to July should be a month of fluctuations. It won't be that comfortable for you.
June to July should be a month of fluctuations. It won't be that comfortable for you.
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BTC's daytime drop only recovered 0.382 (106175), and it hasn't even reclaimed last night's low of 106400, indicating a weak rebound. The highest point of the daytime rebound is likely to be the starting point for the next wave. SOL is synchronized. Continue to wait for a new low to enter long.
ETH is slightly stronger, but BTC still needs to continue downward, making it susceptible to its influence. Although it remained above 2600 yesterday, it quickly dropped to 2556 this morning. The pattern of movement: it's not a gradual increase in volume downwards, but rather a sudden plunge followed by a quick recovery. During the day, it only rebounded to around 0.50 at 2648, and the 2600 level is likely to be broken again.
ETH is slightly stronger, but BTC still needs to continue downward, making it susceptible to its influence. Although it remained above 2600 yesterday, it quickly dropped to 2556 this morning. The pattern of movement: it's not a gradual increase in volume downwards, but rather a sudden plunge followed by a quick recovery. During the day, it only rebounded to around 0.50 at 2648, and the 2600 level is likely to be broken again.
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At the end of the month and the beginning of next month, the daily line will continue to decline. This adjustment is a short-term adjustment based on the inability to break through the 112000 pressure level. The medium to long-term structure remains bullish. The weekly line has seen 7 consecutive ups, and this month’s last week ended with 7 weeks of gains, so it’s normal to end with a bearish week. Let’s talk about the direction ahead:
The most important strong support below 105000 for BTC is 103800. Here, it is freely accessible around 106400. As long as it does not fall below 103800, the short-term rebound can reach as high as around 106400. Therefore, re-entering high shorts cannot be below 106400. The range of 103800-103300 will generally hold for a while, and then break down towards 101450. This is the 0.382 retracement level, which is determined to be the 'short-term bottom-fishing' position. Generally, it should rebound back to 104000-105250 before choosing whether to go up or down. If the main force continues to choose downward, then watch for a break below 100000, heading towards 98200-95000. If the main force chooses upward, it needs to break through 106800 first.
The most important strong support below 105000 for BTC is 103800. Here, it is freely accessible around 106400. As long as it does not fall below 103800, the short-term rebound can reach as high as around 106400. Therefore, re-entering high shorts cannot be below 106400. The range of 103800-103300 will generally hold for a while, and then break down towards 101450. This is the 0.382 retracement level, which is determined to be the 'short-term bottom-fishing' position. Generally, it should rebound back to 104000-105250 before choosing whether to go up or down. If the main force continues to choose downward, then watch for a break below 100000, heading towards 98200-95000. If the main force chooses upward, it needs to break through 106800 first.
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BTC has retraced to around 105,000 as expected, but the rebound in the morning remains weak. On Thursday, there was no follow-up increase in the micro-strategy, indicating that institutions are jointly squeezing heavy long positions. Next, we need to pull back to the support area of 104,600-103,800.
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In February, ETH rebounded to around 2850 and then started to drop. 2770-2850 is a high-pressure zone. There's no need to chase the highs, but rather short a position on new highs. Today, it shouldn't touch 2800 during the day. If it can rebound a bit from today to tomorrow and reach 2850, focus on shorting there. It's the end of the month, and the end of the month to the beginning of next month is not suitable for maintaining a bullish outlook.
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