泡椒田鸡
短线狙击手，长线价值投资者2023.10-2014.3连续12周连续做多sol盈利千万一战封神。推特：@jackli727
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Firm belief in Bitcoin’s bull market cycle!
In February 2021, I randomly found a piece of paper in a hotel on a business trip and simply drew the time nodes and multiple difference analysis of Bitcoin's historical cycle. That day, I studied the previous two bear and bull cycles of Bitcoin. It was already in a bull market at that time, so I made an inference on the possible time point of the highest point of the bull market that year. At that time, I concluded that we were in the upward range of the third bull-bear cycle of Bitcoin at this time, and the highest point would definitely occur in a certain period of time. At that time, I had already locked the time of Bitcoin's highest point in November 2021 (of course its highest point turned out to be 69,000, and I overestimated it by more than 20,000 US dollars). This is also the reason why I gradually cleared out the Bitcoin position from mid-November to early December 2021 when it was around 60,000, leaving only 10% of the position that I have held until now. Regarding the detailed inference at the beginning of 2021 when predicting the highest point of the bull market at that time, I published it that month. The following is a screenshot of the analysis that year. (Many people in last year’s big bear market didn’t realize until they looked back that November 2021 was the month when the last bull market ended?) In the afternoon, I reviewed the first three bear-bull cycles of Bitcoin from 2011 to 2021, and the first three Bitcoin declines. The correlation between half time and the end of the Fed’s balance sheet reduction. The start and end time of the next bull market cycle has basically been determined again. As the saying goes, experience is the best teacher, sometimes better than technology. Please firmly believe that Bitcoin’s fourth bull market cycle will officially start in May next year, and will still end in November-December 2025. Under special circumstances, it will be postponed to January of the following year. It is undeniable that all bull markets since the birth of Bitcoin have ended almost from the end of one year to January of the following year. When I reviewed the characteristics of the first three Bitcoin bull cycles, I also looked at the operating characteristics of the first three halving cycles of Litecoin. Combined with the characteristics of this month, I also affirmed a conclusion: Litecoin’s halving time this year is The trend is completely in line with its historical cycle operation rules (the specific characteristics were posted on the afternoon of July 31). Therefore, we don’t need to be too anxious about the current volatile market, don’t be depressed, and get through the next half of the year, and we can welcome the highlight moment again in the first half of next year! 💪Believe in the big cycle operation rules of Bitcoin, this is your true belief in it!
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BTC has been sideways for 8 days on the daily chart, usually changing trend on the 10th-11th day. The day after tomorrow (Friday) evening there is a non-farm payroll report, which is an important piece of information that might trigger a trend change. If the news is positive, it will likely push towards the 98,000-100,000 direction. If the sentiment is bearish, it may first test the support around 92,750, and if it rebounds above 94,600, it will still lean bullish. If it cannot rise above and breaks below 92,000, it will turn bearish.
Therefore, we should prepare for both scenarios:
After a second breakout at 95,750, a new high will be established, and shorts need to defend at 96,000.
Going long is relatively simpler; the stop loss could be at the break-even point or around 93,600. If it breaks below 93,600, we will look to buy low between 93,350-92,800, as the support around 93,000 is relatively strong, located near the middle band of the 12-hour Bollinger Bands. The 12-hour chart is the last phase of the hourly adjustment cycle; breaking below here would upgrade to a daily adjustment level, indicating a pullback to the 92,000-90,000 level. If it holds and rebounds, the adjustment will end, and a direction will be chosen upward. Currently, there is no top divergence on the daily chart, and it leans slightly bullish in the short term; we should be cautious about chasing shorts, and only take short positions at highs.
Therefore, we should prepare for both scenarios:
After a second breakout at 95,750, a new high will be established, and shorts need to defend at 96,000.
Going long is relatively simpler; the stop loss could be at the break-even point or around 93,600. If it breaks below 93,600, we will look to buy low between 93,350-92,800, as the support around 93,000 is relatively strong, located near the middle band of the 12-hour Bollinger Bands. The 12-hour chart is the last phase of the hourly adjustment cycle; breaking below here would upgrade to a daily adjustment level, indicating a pullback to the 92,000-90,000 level. If it holds and rebounds, the adjustment will end, and a direction will be chosen upward. Currently, there is no top divergence on the daily chart, and it leans slightly bullish in the short term; we should be cautious about chasing shorts, and only take short positions at highs.
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May Day Golden Week (5.1-5.5), a portion of speculative funds in the A-share market may enter. During the holiday, the main players might take advantage of the situation to manipulate the market, potentially driving prices up. If there are unrealized profits in long positions, after taking some profits, hold on to the rest and ensure a break-even stop. As long as the support does not break down, look upwards. Tomorrow, on May 1, there will be a Japanese monetary policy meeting; as long as the outcome does not result in an interest rate hike, there might be an immediate upward pulse.
By May 5, the last day of the holiday, especially in the late night, the main players might take advantage of the market's fatigue to launch a surprise sell-off. Sometimes, they might even do this a day in advance on May 4 (Sunday night), setting the stage for the monetary policy meeting two days later. Typically, the market will transition into a consolidation phase 1-2 days prior, and on May 7 during the US trading session, a decline will be expected. Therefore, bulls next week should be cautious, maintaining low leverage and light positions. On May 8, the Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting, and the main players generally exit 24 hours in advance to observe. No interest rate cut in May meets expectations, which is not considered bearish; however, the probability of a rate cut in June is high, so May might preemptively absorb the positive expectations for June. Therefore, it is not advisable to short multiple times at the same price level, as prolonged consolidation can lead to volatility. Always set a stop-loss for the last position, and it is safest to place short orders in batches at new high points between 96600-99200.
By May 5, the last day of the holiday, especially in the late night, the main players might take advantage of the market's fatigue to launch a surprise sell-off. Sometimes, they might even do this a day in advance on May 4 (Sunday night), setting the stage for the monetary policy meeting two days later. Typically, the market will transition into a consolidation phase 1-2 days prior, and on May 7 during the US trading session, a decline will be expected. Therefore, bulls next week should be cautious, maintaining low leverage and light positions. On May 8, the Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting, and the main players generally exit 24 hours in advance to observe. No interest rate cut in May meets expectations, which is not considered bearish; however, the probability of a rate cut in June is high, so May might preemptively absorb the positive expectations for June. Therefore, it is not advisable to short multiple times at the same price level, as prolonged consolidation can lead to volatility. Always set a stop-loss for the last position, and it is safest to place short orders in batches at new high points between 96600-99200.
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$BTC has strong support, and there is currently no deep fall. For long positions below 93800, try to hold onto a portion and protect the principal loss. If some speculative funds from the A-shares start to enter tonight, there may be a rally during the May Day holiday, then on the last night of the holiday, taking advantage of people's fatigue on their way back, a surprise attack to sell off could happen. This would set the stage for the Federal Reserve's meeting two days later, generally starting to converge within 24 hours before the meeting, with the main players exiting early to observe.
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In the short term, BTC is forming a consolidation rectangle at a high level. Whether it will break through depends on before next Wednesday.
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Interest Rate Cut Expectations by the Federal Reserve from May to July:
May 8: Maintain interest rate unchanged 93.4%, 25 basis point cut probability 6.6%;
June 19: Maintain interest rate unchanged 38.7%, 25 basis point cut 57.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 3.9%;
July 31: Maintain interest rate unchanged 9.7%, 25 basis point cut probability 43.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 43.9%.
ps: June interest rate cut expectations have warmed up. Increased by 3.1% compared to the previous day's expectations.
May 8: Maintain interest rate unchanged 93.4%, 25 basis point cut probability 6.6%;
June 19: Maintain interest rate unchanged 38.7%, 25 basis point cut 57.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 3.9%;
July 31: Maintain interest rate unchanged 9.7%, 25 basis point cut probability 43.4%, 50 basis point cut probability 43.9%.
ps: June interest rate cut expectations have warmed up. Increased by 3.1% compared to the previous day's expectations.
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Both long and short have opportunities; this market can be hedged, but focus on the main and secondary. Because a large trend has already formed a bullish structure, a temporary pullback is only at the hourly level. High shorts can be defended at 95250, and try to take profits in batches on the way down. Near each support point on the pullback, you can gradually enter long to hedge. For long positions, do not set a pattern for now; if there is a rebound of a few hundred points, it’s good to exit, and at important positions, just hold a bit longer.
The pullback route for BTC: 92765-91250 (important)-90350 (important); near the round number, bulls will resist the rebound. If it recovers above 93500, the risk of further pullback is eliminated. If it doesn't recover, it will retest support near 90000, and after breaking down, it will sequentially pull back to 88800-88050 (important)-87100 (important, currently the lowest point of the hourly adjustment).
The pullback route for BTC: 92765-91250 (important)-90350 (important); near the round number, bulls will resist the rebound. If it recovers above 93500, the risk of further pullback is eliminated. If it doesn't recover, it will retest support near 90000, and after breaking down, it will sequentially pull back to 88800-88050 (important)-87100 (important, currently the lowest point of the hourly adjustment).
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Currently, BTC is consolidating between 93,000 - 94,000. High-level consolidation, where sideways movement replaces decline; prolonged sideways movement will inevitably lead to a drop. The daily and weekly indicators remain strong, and there will be new highs in the future, but there is a demand for adjustment in the short term on the hourly level. Currently, the 3-hour level has a death cross, with a pullback looking at 91,300. Entering low long positions during the 4-hour adjustment period has good cost-effectiveness.
Low long: 91,300 - 90,365, take profit at 92,500, 93,845. Defense at 90,000.
High short: 94,125 - 94,450, take profit at 92,685, 91,333. Defense at 95,250.
Low long: 91,300 - 90,365, take profit at 92,500, 93,845. Defense at 90,000.
High short: 94,125 - 94,450, take profit at 92,685, 91,333. Defense at 95,250.
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BTC has two more peaks in the rebound. This week is a rebound on Monday and Tuesday, so we will look for a pullback on Thursday and Friday. There is a Federal Reserve meeting minutes early Thursday, and we expect a downward spike here. Tomorrow, if going long, we need to be cautious to avoid being caught out.
BTC is draining, we can only short BTC in sync, and cannot go long and take profit in sync with BTC, because currently BTC is leading ETH by one dimension and is significantly ahead of SOL, creating a gap in price levels.
New resistance points above BTC: 89850/90050, 90333, and around 91333 (strong resistance). All are shorting points.
BTC is draining, we can only short BTC in sync, and cannot go long and take profit in sync with BTC, because currently BTC is leading ETH by one dimension and is significantly ahead of SOL, creating a gap in price levels.
New resistance points above BTC: 89850/90050, 90333, and around 91333 (strong resistance). All are shorting points.
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BTC has risen, but altcoins have not followed, indicating that market funds have temporarily shifted to BTC. There are reports suggesting that the market is betting on a recession in the U.S., choosing BTC and gold as safe havens. I disagree with this point; BTC has never been a good safe-haven asset. This reasoning is quite forced, after all, the A-shares also saw a rebound at the opening.
Although BTC has broken through the resistance of 86,000, the 5-day moving average and weekly moving average rebound highs have declined.
Upper resistance points: around 89,975, 91,000 (recent high, which has moved down about 750 points from last week's 91,750).
Although BTC has broken through the resistance of 86,000, the 5-day moving average and weekly moving average rebound highs have declined.
Upper resistance points: around 89,975, 91,000 (recent high, which has moved down about 750 points from last week's 91,750).
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Next week's information:
Tuesday:
Tesla Q1 earnings report
21:00 Speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson
Wednesday:
G20 meeting
Thursday:
2:00 Federal Reserve Beige Book (may cause a big movement)
Important short-term support area for BTC: 84275-83800, long position for the first entry. Defense at 83300. If the 24-hour closing is below 83666, it will turn short-term bearish. A breakout above 86400 to 88800 requires positive stimulus. Shorting range: 85400-85750, defense at 86000.
Tail-end market, set stop-loss for both low long and high short positions, as the main force may choose to break upwards or downwards at any time. The current market direction is dominated by information. We can follow the trend.
Tuesday:
Tesla Q1 earnings report
21:00 Speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson
Wednesday:
G20 meeting
Thursday:
2:00 Federal Reserve Beige Book (may cause a big movement)
Important short-term support area for BTC: 84275-83800, long position for the first entry. Defense at 83300. If the 24-hour closing is below 83666, it will turn short-term bearish. A breakout above 86400 to 88800 requires positive stimulus. Shorting range: 85400-85750, defense at 86000.
Tail-end market, set stop-loss for both low long and high short positions, as the main force may choose to break upwards or downwards at any time. The current market direction is dominated by information. We can follow the trend.
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【Key Points for Determining the Trend Reversal of the Three Major Currencies】
sol: It has been performing impressively these days, showing signs of a trend reversal. However, it is still a rebound rather than a reversal. A "reversal" refers to the end of a fluctuating market entering a bullish upward trend, which is called a reversal. The point for determining the trend reversal of sol is to stabilize above 157. Even if it peaks at 175-180, if it falls back below 157, it indicates instability. It needs to close above 157 for a continuous 48 hours to signify a trend reversal, after which it can aim for a larger wave of 250-300. Currently, the biggest pain point for sol in the first half of the year is 175-180. If it can stabilize above 147 recently, it may further push up to around 175. Therefore, I call this phase a minor unilateral rise, which is quite different from the major unilateral upward trend from late last year to early this year.
eth: The point for determining the trend reversal is to break through and stabilize above 2660; only then can we see 4000. Currently, eth has three major peaks in the first half of the year: 1912, 2112, 2320. The road ahead is long and arduous. If that so-called hyped upgrade doesn't take off, it will be completely useless.
btc: The point for determining the trend reversal is to break through and stabilize above 91750; only then can we see 95000-100000. Currently, it is under pressure at 86400 and has been consolidating for over a week. It needs to break through 88800, and only after breaking and stabilizing above 88800 can it aim for 91750. It will still require continuous effort for another two or three steps.
sol: It has been performing impressively these days, showing signs of a trend reversal. However, it is still a rebound rather than a reversal. A "reversal" refers to the end of a fluctuating market entering a bullish upward trend, which is called a reversal. The point for determining the trend reversal of sol is to stabilize above 157. Even if it peaks at 175-180, if it falls back below 157, it indicates instability. It needs to close above 157 for a continuous 48 hours to signify a trend reversal, after which it can aim for a larger wave of 250-300. Currently, the biggest pain point for sol in the first half of the year is 175-180. If it can stabilize above 147 recently, it may further push up to around 175. Therefore, I call this phase a minor unilateral rise, which is quite different from the major unilateral upward trend from late last year to early this year.
eth: The point for determining the trend reversal is to break through and stabilize above 2660; only then can we see 4000. Currently, eth has three major peaks in the first half of the year: 1912, 2112, 2320. The road ahead is long and arduous. If that so-called hyped upgrade doesn't take off, it will be completely useless.
btc: The point for determining the trend reversal is to break through and stabilize above 91750; only then can we see 95000-100000. Currently, it is under pressure at 86400 and has been consolidating for over a week. It needs to break through 88800, and only after breaking and stabilizing above 88800 can it aim for 91750. It will still require continuous effort for another two or three steps.
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Sol spot can capture the trend, while contracts proceed cautiously. Today's pressure is around 144.75, take some profit near 144. The short-term extreme high point is 150 (149.25 or 149.50), strong resistance, generally the minimum pullback is around 140.25. If it doesn't break down, it indicates that 137 is stable, then it will test 150 again, and after breaking through, it will target new wave highs of 157-164.
This is what I said yesterday morning about Sol entering a small wave of unilateral upward trend. Wishing everyone wealth!
This is what I said yesterday morning about Sol entering a small wave of unilateral upward trend. Wishing everyone wealth!
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Next, SOL will experience a small wave of one-sided upward movement. The difference between this one-sided rise and the one-sided rise from October 2023 to March 2024 is that the current rebound is a gradual pullback after a major correction, showing oscillatory upward behavior. The one-sided rise from the end of the previous year to the beginning of last year was a weekly-level upward trend. There is a significant difference in the upward space between the two.
In a one-sided rise, to truly pursue maximum profit, one must be aggressive, but this aggressiveness requires a high level of skill. Just like during the one-sided upward trend of the past two years when I went long on SOL, I would add to my position every time it retraced to 0.286-0.382, seamlessly taking profits in between and ensuring there were no gaps, almost never missing a point. However, there is a risk point: if it rises consecutively in two small waves, it will generally retrace by 11-17 points. If you do not take profits in time, the gains are easily given back, and when it retraces to low levels, you may not dare to add to your position, as doing so could lead to significant losses. Therefore, it's best to go long on SOL by taking profits in batches during each small wave. Unless the market reaches a very strong time point, for example, when the weekly MACD climbs above the zero axis, then one can replicate that aggressive approach seen in the one-sided rise from the end of 2023 to March 2024.
A one-sided rise in the cryptocurrency market is like hitting a long winning streak in a casino. If it's a dealer's long streak, you should keep betting on the dealer; if it's a player's long streak, you should keep betting on the player, continuing until it ends. In the gambling context, encountering a long streak usually means playing hundreds of hands before it happens again; the cryptocurrency market is similar, with 90% of the time oscillating and less than 10% of the time being one-sided, and this 10% typically represents the golden time to make profits in a year.
In a one-sided rise, to truly pursue maximum profit, one must be aggressive, but this aggressiveness requires a high level of skill. Just like during the one-sided upward trend of the past two years when I went long on SOL, I would add to my position every time it retraced to 0.286-0.382, seamlessly taking profits in between and ensuring there were no gaps, almost never missing a point. However, there is a risk point: if it rises consecutively in two small waves, it will generally retrace by 11-17 points. If you do not take profits in time, the gains are easily given back, and when it retraces to low levels, you may not dare to add to your position, as doing so could lead to significant losses. Therefore, it's best to go long on SOL by taking profits in batches during each small wave. Unless the market reaches a very strong time point, for example, when the weekly MACD climbs above the zero axis, then one can replicate that aggressive approach seen in the one-sided rise from the end of 2023 to March 2024.
A one-sided rise in the cryptocurrency market is like hitting a long winning streak in a casino. If it's a dealer's long streak, you should keep betting on the dealer; if it's a player's long streak, you should keep betting on the player, continuing until it ends. In the gambling context, encountering a long streak usually means playing hundreds of hands before it happens again; the cryptocurrency market is similar, with 90% of the time oscillating and less than 10% of the time being one-sided, and this 10% typically represents the golden time to make profits in a year.
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