After days of brilliant highs, the crypto market once again proves its 'violent ups and downs' nature. Major cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and even Solana (SOL) or Dogecoin (DOGE) are entering a strong correction phase, blowing away much of the excitement that had just ignited.
In just one day, Ethereum lost 5.2%, XRP fell 3.8%, Solana evaporated by 6%, and Dogecoin also dropped by 5.2%. Even the 'giant' Bitcoin could not escape the selling wave, falling to $115,000, down 7.3% from its recent historical peak of $124,000.
But is this merely a temporary slip, or a sign of a tumultuous September?
The macroeconomic cloud casts a shadow over the market
According to Barron’s, the current drop is not a random event at all. The global financial market is facing pressure from a series of newly released economic data, among which the sharp rise in wholesale prices stands out, raising concerns that high interest rates will last longer than expected. This is a direct factor squeezing the flow of capital into risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Not stopping there, comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent – that the U.S. government has no plans to expand its Bitcoin reserves – are like a bucket of cold water thrown directly onto the already fragile investor sentiment.
Mr. Antonio Di Giacomo, an analyst at XS, emphasized:
'Bitcoin has proven its strength by reaching historical highs, but the subsequent pullback shows that this market is always associated with severe fluctuations. Currently, investors are being pulled between two extremes: belief in widespread adoption in the long term and short-term fears about a highly unstable macroeconomic backdrop.'
Focus: Jackson Hole and the 'life-and-death signal' from the Fed
Next week, the Jackson Hole Conference will become the focus of global financial attention, as all eyes are on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Just one of his speeches can shape market momentum and decide the flow of capital in the short term.
If Powell maintains a 'hawkish' stance, emphasizing the need to keep interest rates high and delaying plans to cut, the crypto market may face a new wave of selling, as investors flee risk assets.
Conversely, a 'dovish' signal – meaning soft and leaning towards easing – would serve as a strong psychological boost, encouraging risk capital to return to Bitcoin and altcoins, rekindling confidence in the recovery.
In other words, Jackson Hole is not just an annual conference, but rather the 'life-and-death scale' for the psychology of millions of global investors – where every word from Powell could ignite a new bullish wave or drag the market deeper into the adjustment spiral.
'The earthquake' is waiting
On social media, market expert Doctor Profit issued a noteworthy warning:
In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to trade sideways within a narrow range of about 8% until the end of August, reflecting investor caution after the recent hot surge.
However, as September arrives, the market may face a strong 'earthquake' correction before finding a new balance.
According to him, this is a time when traders need to prepare a clear mindset and reasonable defensive strategies. Establishing short positions may become an important tool to capitalize on short-term bearish waves.
At first glance, this prediction seems pessimistic, but in reality, in the financial world, each correction harbors opportunity. Those who are patient and disciplined will see it as a 'buying' opportunity at good prices, laying the groundwork for significant profits when the market enters the next growth cycle.
Whales are quietly accumulating: Long-term confidence remains unchanged
On-chain data is revealing an interesting picture: while the majority panic-sell before the correction, the whales – wallets holding large amounts of BTC and ETH – are quietly increasing their accumulation.
This move sends an important message: long-term confidence in cryptocurrencies remains intact, despite the violent short-term fluctuations. Major investors seem to view the current drop not as a risk, but as an opportunity to scoop up assets at attractive prices.
At the same time, the funding rate in the derivatives market remains stable. This indicates that the market has not fallen into a state of tension, and fears of a large-scale sell-off are not yet present.
On the technical side, Ethereum is still holding strong support around $4,300, while XRP and Solana are also striving to find balance. This is a sign that, although the overall market is adjusting, key coins still have a solid foundation to recover.
In other words, whales are sending a clear signal: the short-term market may be volatile, but the long-term outlook remains a game worth betting on.
Three scenarios for the market in September
Entering September – a stage often dubbed as the 'fire test month' for the crypto market – three major scenarios are particularly being focused on by analysts:
Negative scenario (30%): If the Fed sends a tough signal, maintaining high interest rates for longer, Bitcoin could fall below $110,000, leading to a massive sell-off. The market will enter a defensive state, where fear overrides expectation.
Neutral scenario (40%): If Chairman Powell maintains an ambiguous tone, the market will continue to trade sideways in a narrow range, reflecting waiting and hesitation. This could be a 'spring compression' phase, preparing for a breakout when a clear catalyst emerges.
Positive scenario (30%): If the Fed sends a dovish signal, supporting liquidity and opening the door for rate cuts, Bitcoin could bounce back to $120,000, while also giving Ethereum the momentum to reach new historical highs. Optimism will return, reigniting risk capital.
The crypto market has never been a bed of roses. Bullish spikes always come with severe corrections, causing many timid investors to be swept out of the game. But looking back at history, we can see: each retreat opens up opportunities for those who are patient and have faith.
The important thing now is not just to focus on the red numbers on the price board, but to maintain a long-term perspective. Financial institutions, whale wallets, and smart money are still betting on the future of blockchain and crypto – that is the real picture worth watching.
In summary, September may be harsh, but for resilient investors, this will not be the end, but rather the 'gold accumulation season' – a preparation for the next explosive cycle.