Current ETH is like a kite tied to a rocket— the Federal Reserve is pulling it down, but Vitalik is secretly adding fuel in the tank. Can it fly today? The key depends on whether the 'kite line' at 4250 breaks or not!

Old Chen especially reminds: 'When the market is overwhelmingly bearish, a rebound is often not far away!'

1: Market Sentiment: The 'seeds of greed' hidden in panic

Capital Situation: Bitcoin (BTC) leading the sell-off, with funds shrinking to 25,000 (usually 56,000), indicating retail investors are lying flat, and institutions are waiting for 'cheaper chips'.

Sentiment: ETH contract open interest surges, but 'funding rate turned negative', indicating many are blindly chasing shorts, easily 'being counter-killed'. On-chain data shows that there are huge whale wallets secretly accumulating near 4250.

2: Limited downside space in the future market

The Federal Reserve's negative impact has been priced in: No interest rate cuts in September? The crypto circle knew it early! ETH dropped from 4800 to 4200, a decline of 12%. Those who should run have already run.

Layer3 testnet is a bombshell: Vitalik's 'sharding upgrade' can reduce gas fees, which is a real ecological benefit, but is currently dragged down by the market.

Technical Oversold: 1-hour RSI drops below 30, short-term rebound probability > 70% (historical data backtest).

Conclusion: 'Downside space is limited, a rebound can come anytime, but a confirming volume bullish candle is needed!'

Short-term trading strategy

Today's Key Levels:

Pressure: 4367 (dense chip) → 4400 (psychological barrier) → 4500 (moving average death cross point).

Support: 4250 (bull-bear dividing line) → 4200 (stop-loss line) → 4154 (breakdown = accelerated drop).

Survival Tips:

Aggressive: Lightly long near 4250, stop-loss at 4200, target 4367 (run quickly!).

Conservative: Wait for a volume breakout above 4400 to chase, or short if it breaks below 4154.

Survival Rule: 'Better to miss out than to be wrong!'

Old Chen dares to say: If ETH closes above 4250 today, a bunch of people will be kicking themselves tomorrow, asking 'why didn’t I buy the dip!' But remember—the market specializes in defiance; carrying a stop-loss is a lifesaver! I am Old Chen from Fuxiang Predictions, focusing on news analysis, specifically targeting critical point trends! Follow me, don’t be a late-comer retail investor. One strategy every day, mastering the main force's rhythm in advance.#加密市场回调