Cryptocurrency Trading Insights (II)
I. Understanding the Nature of the Market
Crypto Market ≠ Wealth Express Lane
Short-term profiteers are often bitten back by volatility, while long-term survivors tend to focus more on 'survival rate'. During a bull market, restrain greed (e.g., take profits in batches when expectations are met), and during a bear market, beware of 'bottom-fishing traps' (requires dual verification of fundamentals + technicals).
Information Filtering is Key
Reject 'rumors', focus on on-chain data (e.g., changes in the number of holding addresses, inflow and outflow from exchanges), and the actual progress of projects (developer activity rather than social media hype).
II. Technical Toolbox
Multi-Timeframe Verification Method
Daily chart determines direction, 4-hour chart sets entry, 1-hour chart finds precise entry points (e.g., after a daily breakout, enter on a 4-hour pullback to support).
Combine with RSI indicator (do not chase highs above 80 in overbought zone, be cautious about bottom-fishing below 20 in oversold zone).
Liquidity Traps
Small-cap coins are easily manipulated; avoid large orders when trading depth is insufficient (e.g., if the price difference between buy and sell is >1%).
III. Survival Rules
'Margin of Safety' Mindset
Only act when there is 'high reward + low risk' (e.g., during the early hype cycle of Bitcoin ETF, mainstream coins outperform altcoins).
Reserve at least 3 times the leverage as a buffer (e.g., a 5x leveraged account should maintain ≥60% available funds).
Anti-Fragility Design
Allocate part of the assets to low-correlation targets (e.g., stablecoins, anti-inflation tokens) to hedge risks during black swan events.
IV. Ultimate Reminder
The most expensive tuition in the crypto market is 'thinking you understand'. Maintain a beginner's mindset, and use time to test your understanding — 'Bull markets will ultimately reward the patient, while bear markets will eliminate the lucky.'
(Note: Specific trading experiences can be supplemented with examples, such as the chip distribution patterns during the 2024 Bitcoin halving cycle, or recent flaws in token models of DeFi projects.)
