Data is a knife glimmering with cold light, policy is a raging fire, and BTC is dancing barefoot on a knife mountain amidst the flames, playing 'life and death at high speed'! This thrilling scene is a hundred times more exciting than a Hollywood blockbuster!

Today's BTC market is simply a 'key level battle royale', with prices playing 'tightrope walking' on the 'bull-bear dividing line' at $115,200 — above, $116,500 is a solid 'bear fortress', while below, $114,100 is a precarious 'bull baseline'. The three lines of the Bollinger Bands have tightened more than the frown of a crypto miner upon seeing their electricity bill, and a big battle is imminent!

News front: The 'extreme tug of war' between data and policy.

Tonight at 20:30, the Canadian CPI and U.S. housing data are teaming up for some action! Latest news shows that the market expects the annualized total of new housing starts in the U.S. for July to be 1.297 million units, with building permits at 1.389 million units. If the data 'underperforms', the dollar index may 'go flat', instantly relieving pressure on BTC; but if the data is 'stronger than expected', the dollar will quickly 'perk up', and BTC might get pressed down hard — this dramatic plot is even more nerve-wracking than 'Squid Game'!

On the next day at 02:10, the speech by Fed's Bowman will be the 'ultimate boss battle'! This hawkish figure, who once proclaimed 'no rate cuts before 2025', has recently softened his stance due to 'political pressure' from Trump, surprisingly supporting three rate cuts within the year last week. If he continues to sound dovish tonight, the market may joyfully anticipate 'policy easing', and BTC could break through resistance and soar; but if he throws out 'ambiguous signals', the market will erupt in confusion over 'policy uncertainty', and short-term selling will happen faster than Bolt's sprint, leaving no time for a reaction!

Technical analysis: The 'life-and-death maze' at the bull-bear watershed.

Currently, there are three major 'confusing behaviors awards' on the table:

MACD green bars are pure 'bluffing': Bears seem to have the upper hand, but their momentum is weak like a Tesla that hasn't been charged, stopping after a few steps. Bulls also lack follow-up funding, resembling the 'standoff' when BTC was stuck at $60,000 in November 2024, with neither side willing to take the first move!

$116,500 has become the 'gates of hell': This position is stacked with layers of historical trapped orders; is there a chance to break through with less than 10% volume? That's just a dream! It's like trying to push open a door blocked with stones; without real strength, it's impossible.

The middle line of the Bollinger Bands is turning into a 'downward slide': If the price closes below the middle line for three consecutive days, it may trigger a 'technical bear flag'. The 'waterfall market' after BTC broke below $30,000 in May 2022 might repeat itself! At that time, the decline will be even more thrilling than a roller coaster plunge.

Xing Ge's opinion: Beware of the sweet trap of 'positive data'.

Historical experience tells us that there are two 'minefields' we must avoid:​

Too strong data can backfire: If U.S. data exceeds expectations, a stronger dollar will directly suppress BTC, and the support level at $114,100 may 'break in seconds', with targets below aiming straight for $112,000. Just thinking about that scene makes it painful for the bulls!

Bowman is 'playing Tai Chi': If his speech is vague and ambiguous, the market may interpret it as 'policy instability', and short-term selling will occur faster than a rabbit spotting a wolf! It is recommended to focus on two key signals:

  • Can the dollar index strongly surge to 98.5?

  • Will BTC form a 'pregnant line pattern' in the $114,100-$116,500 range?

How will tonight's 'crypto script' be written? The 'palace intrigue' of data and policy has entered a heated stage. Can BTC successfully break through the 'quadruple top'? The answer will be revealed tonight! Whether you are a staunch 'bullish believer' or a sharp 'bear sniper', please fasten your seatbelt — the storm in the crypto world never gives a 'weather forecast' in advance; who knows when the winds will start raging!

The crypto world is all about heartbeats, but don't let emotions lead the way! Follow Xing Ge, who shares hardcore analysis every day, helping you avoid pitfalls and seize opportunities!
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