Update: We have only a few days left until Jackson Hole - the largest global economic conference of the year (August 21-23). Markets are quietly holding their breath in anticipation.
- The market continues to hold its breath waiting to hear Powell's direction. CME is currently pricing in ~84% likelihood that the Fed will cut by 25bps in September (down from >90% last week), but it is likely that Powell's statement will also be unclear.
- $BTC broke below $115k, the entire market evaporated over $100B in capitalization. There is significant liquidation pressure as the “risk-off” sentiment returns.
- $ETH : the withdrawal queue for staking is expanding, creating potential supply pressure. Although the entry volume is also increasing, it remains quite low compared to the amount waiting to withdraw => “even though the withdrawal queue is increasing, it has not yet reached a level to create immediate supply pressure, as the unstaking process has a delay and many ETH may be restaked again.”
- The number of wallets with >100k ETH has decreased sharply, while the group with 10–100k ETH has increased rapidly => a signal of distribution from large whales to mid-whales.
=> If Powell does not signal clearly, both stocks and crypto may continue to experience significant fluctuations. For ETH, reallocating cash flow between large whales and mid-sized investors will be a key factor to closely monitor to position for the medium-term trend.
=> The distribution of ETH wallets is not necessarily a bad signal; in the past, Bitcoin has also shown a similar pattern: whales decrease, sharks accumulate, and it is the sharks that truly push the price.
