8.19 Macroeconomic Market Analysis

Good morning, brothers. The market has not been good these days, with Bitcoin dropping about 7.9%. Many brothers are worried that the upcoming market will continue to decline, especially those who are stuck at high prices and can't sleep at night. So, will there really be another wave of a major crash? Some say it will go down to 100,000, even 90,000, or 80,000.

Ignoring all the analysts bragging, let's talk with data. We only look at on-chain data. From the on-chain data, there has been an influx of stablecoins into exchanges in the past few days, with no signs of outflow. Bitcoin continues to flow out of exchanges. The proportion of whales is still increasing, and it seems they are still accumulating.

Currently, BTC is approaching the 60-day EMA, which is quite safe, but ETH is a bit far from the 60-day moving average and may need to drop a little more. BNB is performing well and is expected to break above $900 in the next phase. SOL has dropped significantly and seems unreliable; this is a common wash trading tactic by the market makers. So for brothers who bought spot SOL, be patient and hold on, don't get shaken out. For contract trend positions, it might be worth waiting a bit longer!

On the international front, Hamas has agreed to the mediation party's new ceasefire proposal in Gaza. The Russia-Ukraine conflict may be coming to an end, which is positive for risk assets in the crypto world. Ukrainian President Zelensky, dressed formally, said “thank you” eight times to kick off the meeting with President Trump, who discussed purchasing $100 billion in U.S. weapons in exchange for security guarantees. After the meeting, Trump will call Russian President Putin, with the location to be determined, followed by a trilateral meeting.

Why do market makers want to push down first? They are waiting for the Federal Reserve's decision at 2 AM Thursday. They want to set a trap and allow the short sellers to increase their positions, waiting for this report to be released before a big rally to profit off the shorts.

Previously, we announced the institutional costs:

BTC is around $100,000 - $110,000

ETH is around $3,500

BNB is around $760

Currently, institutions are not making much profit. We need to see the big picture and be patient with our holdings.

Long Ge's analysis is just for friendly reference. Adults must take responsibility for their own decisions. Investing carries risks, so please invest with spare money and think independently!