Recently, almost everyone in the market believes September is the season for altcoins. I think the consensus among retail investors has instead become a trap. Below, I will discuss from the perspectives of technical analysis, capital situation, cyclical patterns, and market sentiment:

1. Technical analysis: The struggle between key support and downward space.

1. The effectiveness of Bitcoin's support at $98,200 on June 22.

- Short-term pressure: Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $120,000. If it cannot break through the key resistance zone of $140,000-$150,000 (with ETH needing to break through $4,800 simultaneously), it may trigger a technical correction.

- Extreme downside scenario: If it falls below $98,200, watch the strength of the Fibonacci retracement level (like $85,000 at 0.618). Historical data shows that Bitcoin often experiences 'double bottoms' during bear markets, but extreme declines (like more than 95%) usually occur during liquidity crises or regulatory black swan events. The current macro environment has not yet reached this threshold.

2. The underlying logic for altcoins' bottom.

- Market cap ratio and capital rotation: The total market cap of altcoins is currently about $1.4 trillion. If Bitcoin's dominance remains below 55%, capital may accelerate into altcoins. However, if Bitcoin rises further to $140,000, altcoins may face a more severe siphoning effect.

- Valuation differentiation: Top projects (like ETH, SOL) may only see corrections of 30%-50%, while tokens without actual use cases could go to zero. Attention should be paid to undervalued blue chips (like BNB, XRP) and the technological upgrades of modular public chains (like SUI, APTOS).

2. Capital situation: Liquidity cycles and institutional behavior.

1. The double-edged sword effect of the Fed's interest rate cut expectations.

- Conditions favorable for altcoins: If the interest rate cut in September materializes (probability 83%-92%), it may stimulate risk assets in the short term, but be wary of the 'buy the expectation, sell the fact' market. Historical data shows that the main upward wave for altcoins typically starts 3-6 months after an interest rate cut.

- Potential risks: If inflation rebounds causing the interest rate cut to be delayed, highly leveraged altcoin positions may trigger a chain of liquidations, exacerbating market volatility.

2. Institutional holdings trends.

- ETF capital inflow: Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen a net inflow of $17 billion over the past 60 days, but if funds shift towards altcoin-related ETFs (like ETH, SOL), it may accelerate sector rotation.

- Signal for stablecoin issuance: When the market capitalization of USDT and USDC exceeds $100 billion, it usually indicates a turning point for altcoin liquidity. Currently, the supply of stablecoins is about $85 billion, which has not yet reached historical highs.

3. Cyclical patterns: The time window for the market following the halving.

1. Halving cycle and the start of the altcoin season.

- Historical patterns: The peak window is typically 500-550 days after Bitcoin's halving (April 2024 halving → peak in September-October 2025), after which the altcoin market begins. However, if the market anticipates too early, the actual launch may be delayed until Q1 2026.

- Current phase: August 2025 is still in the mid-phase of the bull market post-halving, with a target price for BTC of $140,000-$150,000 yet to be reached. Systemic risks for altcoins have not been fully released.

2. Two possible paths for altcoin bottoms.

- Rapid clearance: If BTC falls below $98,000 and triggers panic selling, altcoins may quickly drop by 30%-50%, and then bottom out in November-December (partially aligning with your prediction).

- Gradual bottoming: If Bitcoin consolidates in the $100,000-$120,000 range, altcoins may complete their valuation repair through a prolonged downward trend (6-12 months), pushing the bottom time window to 2026.

4. Market sentiment and strategy suggestions.

1. The contrary indicator effect of retail consensus.

- Current contradictions: The market is hotly discussing that 'September altcoin bull' may exhaust expectations. If Bitcoin fails to break through $140,000, a reversal in sentiment could lead to a crash. However, if liquidity easing exceeds expectations, the altcoin season may still start.

- Operational suggestions:

- For those holding cash: Wait for Bitcoin to pull back to the $95,000-$100,000 range, or build positions in batches after ETH breaks $4,800.

- For holders: Focus on undervalued sectors (like AI + blockchain, RWA), with stop-loss set at 20%-30%.

2. Risk control in extreme scenarios.

- Black swan response: If sudden negative regulations (like the US classifying ETH as a security) or a macroeconomic crisis occurs, keep positions within 5% and prioritize compliant exchanges.

- Long-term perspective: Historical data shows that during bear market bottoms (such as in 2018 and 2022), altcoins on average fell by 80%-90%, but quality projects can see increases of 10-100 times in the next bull market.

Summary: Key observation points in the bull-bear struggle.

1. Short-term (1-3 months): Focus on whether BTC can break through $140,000 and whether ETH can stabilize above $4,800. If not, it may trigger a deep correction in altcoins.

2. Mid-term (6-12 months): If the Fed's interest rate cut cycle begins and the regulatory environment improves, November-December may become a temporary bottom for altcoins.

3. Long-term (over 1 year): Emerging sectors like modular public chains and AI protocols may lead the recovery; it is necessary to position in assets that resonate with both technical and fundamental factors.

The current market is highly divided, and it is recommended to avoid one-sided bets, reducing risk through long-short hedging (like BTC long + altcoin put options). Historical experience shows that excessive reliance on 'retail consensus' often leads to misjudgment; rational analysis of macro indicators and project value is the way to survive.

My suggestion is that it is now almost certain that an interest rate cut will happen in September, so there will be speculation in late August and early September, right before the cut. If Bitcoin breaks through again or if Ethereum hits a new historical high, or if your holdings increase effectively, you should reduce your position or go to cash to hedge! Preserving profits is the most important thing at any time!#BitDigital转型 #加密市场回调