1. All-time high and correction This week, Bitcoin reached a new all-time high near $124,474. However, the strong rise did not hold: it pulled back nearly 8%, leaving the price hovering between $115,000 and $119,000.
2. Market sentiment and major movements A disarmament of over $1.8 billion in long positions has been observed, reflecting a shift in sentiment towards caution. Large 'whales' sold 30,000 BTC (approximately $3.45 billion), applying additional selling pressure. The support level at $115,000 is in focus, and if it breaks, we could see a drop towards $112,526, although a possible bounce up to $117,261 is also under consideration.
3. Technical signals and chart structure A breakout from the 'rising wedge' technical pattern has been detected, which is a classic bearish signal that often anticipates deeper corrections. The chart suggests a double top pattern similar to that of 2021. If confirmed, it could lead to a drop of up to 20%, leaving the price near $94,750. Although BTC remains above the simple moving average of 21 days (21-SMA), the 'Weekly Trend Precognition' indicator from Material Indicators has issued a bearish signal, reducing the chances of a bullish breakout this week.
4. Macroeconomic context Key inflation data in the U.S. had a mixed impact: the CPI was slightly softer, fueling hopes for a rate cut in September; meanwhile, the PPI was higher than expected, moderating expectations for immediate monetary relief. Despite everything, both stocks and BTC recorded weekly gains, and the market maintains moderate confidence that there could be a 25 basis point rate cut in September. $BTC
Quick BTC assessment (week)
🟥Momentum: pullback after ATH, high volatility.
🟥Technical: bearish signals (wedge, double top, precognition).
🟥Supports: $115,000 then $112.5k-$110k.
🟥Resistances: $122k-$124.5k.
🟥Macro: possible rate cut in September.
🟥Sentiment: from euphoric to cautious (whale sales + liquidations).
🟥Consider adjusting stop-loss near $115,000 to protect long positions. If you are already exposed, it may be appropriate to resize positions or secure partial profits given the volatility and mixed signals. Establishing a clear plan in case of support breaks ($115,000) or bounces to resistances ($122-124k) can help avoid emotional decisions.
