In March 2025, ETH plummeted by 9.55%. Liangxi shorted with 10,000 in rolling positions and made 10 million in just a few hours. The entire network erupted, with countless people shouting, 'Rolling positions are the fastest way for ordinary people to turn their fortunes!' — but no one told you that Liangxi had previously faced liquidation 37 times, with total losses exceeding 5 million.

ETH Intraday Chart: Liangxi's rolling position points compared to the corpses of those who were liquidated.

One, The Essence of Rolling Positions: A 'Life and Death Game' Under High Leverage

1. Analysis of Liangxi's 'Genius Operations'

- Accurate Judgment: With ETH in wide fluctuations downwards, Liangxi capitalized on both long and short positions to profit from every wave of volatility.

- Rolling Position Increment: After each profit, add the gains to the next trade, leveraging the effect of compound interest to amplify returns.

- Strict Stop Loss: Although using high leverage, set narrow stop losses to avoid excessive single trade losses.

2. The 'Mathematical Trap' of Rolling Positions

- Win Rate Requirement: Assuming a 60% win rate for each trade, the probability of success for 10 consecutive rolling positions is only 0.6^10=0.6%.

- Drawdown Risk: Even if the first 9 attempts are successful, the 10th failure could lead to complete loss (e.g., in 2024, a user rolled positions 9 times and made a profit of 1 million, but lost everything on the 10th attempt).

- Liquidity Constraints: Large fund rolling can trigger market reversals, leading to increased slippage (e.g., in 2023, a fund caused an ETH flash crash due to rolling operations).

Second, Tony's 'Rolling Position Bible': Can ordinary people replicate it?

1. Tony's Legend and the Truth

- The Myth of Turning 50,000 into 20 Million: Tony achieved 400 times return in one year through rolling positions, but it involved monitoring the market for 16 hours daily and hundreds of trial-and-error attempts.

- The Core Logic of Rolling Positions:

Only roll positions in a major trend (e.g., BTC rising unilaterally in 2024).

Gradually reduce the position after making a profit (to prevent profit withdrawal).

Never go All in (keep 50% of funds to cope with extreme market conditions).

2. The 'Nightmare of Rolling Positions' for Ordinary People

- Mental Breakdown: After consecutive stop losses, it is easy to trade emotionally (e.g., in 2023, a user suffered a major loss after three consecutive stop losses and then over-leveraged on the fourth attempt).

- Technical Barriers: Rolling positions require strong market prediction abilities, which ordinary people often struggle with ('seeing the right direction but losing at the entry point').

- Time Cost: Full-time traders find it challenging to manage rolling positions, let alone amateur players.

Three, Alternative Solutions for Rolling Positions: Paths with Low Risk and High Returns

1. Dollar-Cost Averaging + Grid Strategy

- Dollar-Cost Averaging: Invest a fixed amount in BTC/ETH every month and hold long-term (from 2021 to 2025, BTC's dollar-cost averaging annualized returns exceeded 30%).

- Grid Trading: Buy low and sell high within a volatile range to earn from fluctuations (e.g., in 2024, ETH's grid annualized returns reached 50% within the 2000-2500 USD range).

2. Trend Following + Small Position Testing

- Trend Following: Only enter the market when the major trend is clear (e.g., chasing the rise after BTC breaks historical highs).

- Small Position Testing: Use 1%-2% of your position to test strategies, and gradually increase the position after validating effectiveness.

3. Learn On-Chain Data

- Whale Monitoring: Use tools like Glassnode to track institutional movements (e.g., after a certain whale increased their ETH holdings in 2024, the price rose 20% within a week).

- Emotional Indicators: Use the Fear and Greed Index to identify extreme market emotions (e.g., buy when the index is <20, sell when >80).

Mu Qing only engages in real trading; the team still has spots available for those who want to join.