A big bearish candle smashed through 4300 this morning, a 200-point drop directly staging a 'black swan' in the crypto world.
Currently, market sentiment is gloomier than a typhoon day in Hangzhou - expectations for Fed rate cuts have cooled, geopolitical risks have risen, and even large accounts are secretly shifting positions (Ethereum co-founder Jeffrey Wilcke sold 5200 ETH this morning). With three major bearish factors overlapping, it would be strange if the shorts weren't celebrating!
Technical Analysis: The long-short meat grinder has started, with two big mountains overhead: 4351 has become the 'rebound ghost gate', three attempts this morning were all smashed back, and 4487 above is filled with institutional short positions, layered selling pressure like a thousand-layer cake.
Thin ice underfoot cracking: 4163 seems like support, but is actually a psychological defense line for retail investors. When it plummeted to 4200 in the morning, liquidation orders piled up higher than the mountains. Once it breaks down with volume, heading straight for the abyss at 4033 is no scare tactic!
The main force plays psychological warfare: don't be fooled by the dense buy orders around 4270, look closely at the volume - 500K orders are just a bluff, big funds aren't stepping in. In contrast, the selling orders above 4400 are like dark clouds pressing down, clearly indicating a 'rebound means short' situation.
Eerie Signal: Whales are wildly buying during the crash!
There are devilish details hidden in the crash: a mysterious large account bought 92,899 ETH this morning and hid positions in three wallets! This operation is very similar to Sun Yuchen's bottom-fishing technique during the 2023 crash - overt panic selling, covert accumulation. But retail investors, don't get carried away! Whales play left-side layout, while we trade right-side for more safety.
Chanlian Real Trading Diary: Feeling itchy? Check out the painful lessons of my fans!
Last Friday, I greedily bet on a CPI data rebound, heavily long at 4450, but the data bombed and instantly plunged to 4200, with stop-loss slipping up to $50! Weekend liquidity was as thin as paper, and the 'pattern gang' was targeted. Today's strategy is three words: lie! wait! endure! Really need to take action? Set a short position at 4160 with a stop loss at 4200, a risk-reward ratio of 3:1 is worth it.
Suspense Moment: Tonight Powell speaks for global central banks. If dovish hints at a rate cut in September, ETH may violently surge 10% at any time! But if hawkish... heh, the 4s may have to say goodbye. Want to get my 'long-short kill strategy' in advance? Follow me, click to follow the Chanlian homepage, everything you want is here!
Next week I'll take you to guard against the main force's capital movements, digging for golden pits amidst the crash~
Don't ask for the bottom during a crash - the bottom is formed through rises, not guessed!
