This morning, ETH staged a shocking scene, with prices cascading down like a waterfall, briefly touching the low of $4278! Panic sentiment in the market spread instantly, seemingly triggered by the dual negatives of 'Old Trump Bombardment' and 'ETH Unlocking Peak' igniting a wave of selling. But clearing the fog, this is more like a carefully designed panic wash, with the real risk being minimal, instead revealing a rare 'golden pit'!
Trigger for the crash: Two torrents of panic collide
· The 'Old Trump Storm' sweeps the market: Trump's latest speech is interpreted by the market as a negative signal for crypto assets, instantly igniting panic among investors, with a large amount of chips being thrown into the market at any cost.
The 'Unlocking Panic' sweeps the market: The news that 'a large amount of ETH is about to be unlocked' bombards the market, and retail investors worry that whales will crash the market, leading to a stampede to escape.
The collision of two torrents of panic led to a sharp drop of over 4% in ETH price within a very short time, plummeting from a high of $4450 to a low of $4278.
Negative illusion: The three truths hidden by panic
In-depth analysis shows that these two 'black swans' are nothing more than paper tigers within expectations:
1. The 'Old Trump Storm' is merely reheated old news: Its core points - regulation of crypto assets, compliance of exchanges, etc., have long been fully anticipated by the market. The so-called 'new risks' are actually long-standing normal issues within the industry. The celebrity effect has been intentionally exaggerated, and panic selling plays into the hands of the main forces.
2. The 'Unlocking Peak' is actually a controllable trickle: On-chain data clearly reveals that the ETH about to be unlocked is only about 23,000 coins, accounting for a minuscule proportion of the circulation (0.03%), far from enough to shake the foundation of the market. Historical experience shows that most whales choose to reinvest after unlocking, rather than selling off. This panic is more of a smoke bomb aimed at retail investor psychology.
3. The critical defense line stands firm: $4278 is by no means an ordinary level - it is both a strong support in the 4-hour chart and a solid fortress after multiple pullbacks! After the sharp drop reached this position, buying funds surged in, quickly recovering the price back to the $4320 high. This clearly conveys the signal: panic selling is nearly exhausted, and bulls are strongly taking over the battlefield!
Counterattack: Smart money has started to position
At this moment, blind panic is equivalent to handing over cheap chips. The real opportunity lies in:
· $4250-$4300 range: If the pullback firmly holds this fortress, it will be an excellent time for phased deployment. The core growth logic of ETH - institutional ETF continuous accumulation and rapid expansion of the ecological landscape - remains intact. The 'Old Trump Storm' and unlocking concerns are merely short-term noise, and the pullback precisely provides a better entry point.
· The ultimate defense line at $4200: Even if bears strike again, the daily MA30 average line (around $4200) forms an impenetrable wall. As long as this defense line holds, the upward trend of ETH remains intact, and there is no need to lose composure due to temporary fluctuations.
The crypto space has always been a battlefield of psychological games. Especially as ETH approaches its historical high (4730 USD), the main forces often use 'false negatives' to clear floating chips in preparation for a breakout. Today's sharp drop seems thrilling but is actually a precise selection of chips. Once the clouds of panic disperse, ETH will surely regain its oscillating upward rhythm - and at this moment of deep pit, it is a great opportunity for the insightful to pick up gold!
When the market is in panic, do you choose to cut losses and leave or take the opportunity to buy the dip? Feel free to share your insights in the comments!
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