In terms of events
1. Pay attention to speeches by Federal Reserve officials to gauge future monetary policy directions.
2. Monitor geopolitical events, such as tensions in international relations, which may trigger market risk aversion.
3. Observe the whale ratio and funding rates on exchanges to assess changes in market sentiment.
From a macro perspective
Expectations for Federal Reserve policy are fluctuating: Daly's opposition to a 50 basis point rate cut in September continues to gain traction, with the market in wait-and-see mode before the Jackson Hole meeting, leading to a reduced probability of a rate cut in September and an increase in risk premium in the crypto market.
Geopolitical crises are escalating: Trump demands Zelensky to give up Crimea, Putin plans to test fire nuclear missiles, and the U.S. Treasury Secretary warns India to stop purchasing Russian oil, putting dual pressure on market sentiment from geopolitical tensions and energy sanctions.
The siphoning effect of funds is intensifying: substantial inflows of southbound funds into Hong Kong and A-shares, increased net inflows on the ETH chain exchanges, and the crypto market is facing blood loss.