Current Situation and Technical Analysis
• Declining Bullish Momentum: Solana's failure to maintain gains above the $200 level, collapsing towards $182.89, puts the $150 support at risk of breaking.
• Conflicting Technical Indicators:
• The MACD shows a bearish crossover, along with a negative reversal in the AO indicator, which may indicate continued selling pressure.
• However, some analyses predict a break above the $200 resistance, potentially reaching a range of $210–218, provided that technical signals support it.
Fundamental Momentum and Institutional Interest
• Significant ETF liquidity injection: The report discusses inflows of $164 million through ETFs, reinforcing expectations for Solana to rise to $210 in the coming weeks.
• Increasing Institutional Demand: Some analysts point to the formation of positive Elliott Wave patterns, which could drive the price towards a range of $240–280.
• Adoption from the Traditional Financial Sector: Several major banks like HSBC and Bank of America, along with other financial institutions, have partnered with the Solana Foundation through R3. This confirms that Solana has become a long-term option for banks as an alternative blockchain to Ethereum.
Network Performance and Infrastructure Usage
• Exceptional Operational Numbers:
• The network recorded a record of 107,664 transactions per second in a single block.
• Half of USDC transactions are now being conducted through Solana, reflecting genuine growth in usage.
Risks and Challenges
• Previous Tensions and Affected Reputation:
• Solana's reputation was affected during the $Libra cryptocurrency scandal, resulting in a drop of around 15% in price, especially since the network is widely used for launching meme coins.
• Technical and Criminal Risks:
• Academic research has shown that the majority of smart contract developers on Solana may leave security vulnerabilities, although reliance on frameworks like Anchor may reduce these risks.
• There is also a phenomenon of rug pulls within the decentralized financial (DeFi) ecosystem, with more than 22,000 suspected cases identified from 2021 to 2024, indicating the need for caution in exploring the DeFi ecosystem.
Conclusion
• Solana is facing a confrontation between two scenarios: a bullish scenario driven by strong technical and managerial support, which could push the price towards $210–280 in the coming period; and a bearish scenario if selling pressure continues and support declines at lower levels like $172 or $150.
• The key lies in monitoring:
• Whether the ETF network and financial institution partners will remain supportive.
• Continued operational performance of the network, and the development of a secure smart contract environment.
• In addition to the impact of regulatory frameworks and risks associated with meme coins.
